Abstract In 2016, the GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate was about 6.7%, the total economic output exceeded 70 trillion yuan, the CPI (consumer price index) rose moderately by 2%, the contribution rate of consumption to the economy reached 71%, and the GDP energy consumption decreased. About 5% &helli...
In 2016, the GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate was about 6.7%, the total economic output exceeded 70 trillion yuan, the CPI (consumer price index) rose moderately by 2%, the contribution rate of consumption to the economy reached 71%, and the GDP energy consumption decreased. About 5%... Xu Shaoshi, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, at the press conference of the State Council Office on January 10, using a set of data to show that Chinaâ€™s economy and society maintained a stable and healthy development in 2016, and the 13th Five-Year Plan had a good start. .
A number of experts analyzed that industrial production and market demand grew steadily, the effects of de-capacity and destocking policies appeared, and the relationship between supply and demand gradually improved. The lack of prices has risen sharply, and the prices of industrial products are unlikely to continue to rise. Next, while maintaining steady growth, more emphasis will be placed on structural reforms. The total economic output exceeded 70 trillion
Xu Shaoshi said at the above-mentioned press conference that in 2016, the supply-side structural reforms were promoted in an orderly manner, and the key tasks of â€œthree to one, one reduction and one supplementâ€ have achieved initial results. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter, second quarter and third quarter is 6.7%, and is expected to be around 6.7% for the whole year.
Xu Shaoshi said that it is estimated that the country's total economic output will exceed 70 trillion yuan in 2016, an increase of about 5 trillion yuan. This increase is basically equivalent to the increase of 10% in five years ago, equivalent to 1994 in China. The total economic output is also outstanding in the major economies of the world.
Xu Shaoshi said that the IMF (International Monetary Fund) recently released a report, and the German Voice website published a review article saying that in 2016 China contributed 1.2 percentage points to the global economic growth rate, and the United States and Europe were 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively. In this proportion, China contributes more than 30% to global economic growth. Since it became the world's largest contributor to economic growth for the first time in 2009, it has continued to provide sufficient momentum for the global economy. China's contribution to the world economy will grow larger and larger.
According to the China Economic Growth Report 2016 issued by the National Economic Accounting and Growth Center of Peking University, Chinaâ€™s per capita GDP calculated by the exchange rate method in 2020 is close to or reaches the lower limit of the current high-income country group. The total GDP may be close to or reach the US. Level.
Liu Linan, senior strategist at Deutsche Bank, said that analyzing China's economy depends not only on GDP growth, but also on structural changes in terms of declining production capacity, rising consumption, and slowing growth in real estate investment. We should continue to further promote supply-side structural reforms, reduce macroeconomic imbalances, strengthen financial market reform, opening up, and formal management, and further improve macro-prudential regulatory frameworks; gradually digest debts and reduce the debt burden of local governments and enterprises.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC Greater China, believes that the Chinese economy will stabilize in 2016 and this trend will continue in 2017. As demand increases, deflationary pressures will continue to ease. The improvement in prices will help increase corporate profits, reduce the debt burden, and stabilize private investment and even moderate recovery. CPI rose moderately
On January 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released CPI and PPI data for December 2016 and the full year. In December, the CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected. In 2016, the CPI rose by 2.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over 2015.
Regarding the next price trend, Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that the downturn cycle of pork prices in the first quarter of 2017 may end and then rebound. Affected by supply and demand factors and speculation, pork prices in some regions have already risen sharply. The cold weather in winter affects the production of vegetables. When the peak season of consumption comes, the prices of vegetables, fruits, meat and aquatic products may rise. In the early stage, market liquidity remained abundant, supporting CPI, commodity prices and crude oil prices rose, industrial product prices rebounded, and industrial product prices rose to the consumer side, driving the core CPI to rise, forming a price up cycle.
Lian Ping believes that due to the gradual stabilization of the macro economy, the tone of the monetary policy is intended to be stable and neutral, and relevant policies will pay more attention to structural reforms while stabilizing growth, and will not easily adopt excessive stimulus measures. Under the combined effect of supply and demand and speculative factors, some food prices with tight supply and demand may rise rapidly. It is expected that the CPI will increase slightly in the future.
Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told the First Financial Reporter that the central economic work conference put forward a "neutral" statement on monetary policy stance, and more aimed at preventing asset price bubbles and reducing financial risks. Financial de-leverage will objectively tighten the monetary environment, thus restraining inflation from rising to some extent.
Zhang Jun believes that along with the central bank to strengthen macro-prudential supervision and the de-leveraging of financial assets, while the Fedâ€™s pace of interest rate hikes has led to increased downward pressure on foreign exchange holdings and the central bankâ€™s sharp cut in the deposit reserve ratio space, this yearâ€™s The slowdown in M2 growth may, to a certain extent, curb the rise in inflation from the monetary conditions, so the central bank does not need to take additional monetary tightening measures like interest rate hikes. Rapid growth of PPI is not sustainable
In December 2016, the national industrial producers' ex-factory price (PPI) rose by 1.6% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year. In 2016, the PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 2.0%.
In terms of industries, the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, and petroleum processing industry rose by 35.0%, 34.0%, 19.7%, 17.1% and 16.6%, respectively. The increase was 12.8, 5.4, 13.5, 4.5 and 7.6 percentage points higher than the previous month. The total impact of PPI increased by about 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for about 76% of the total increase.
The reason for the increase in PPI growth is the analysis of the national day of the rope. First, it is affected by many factors such as exchange rate fluctuations. The price of imported bulk commodities has risen, which has pushed up the ex-factory price of some industrial products. Second, the industrial production and market demand have grown steadily, and the capacity has gone. The effect of the inventory policy has emerged and the relationship between supply and demand has gradually improved.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with the First Financial Journal that the effect of steady growth has already appeared, the benefits of enterprises have improved, the manufacturing and private investment have recovered, and the situation of economic stabilization has emerged. The PPI grew rapidly from September to December 2016, from 0.1% to 5.5%. On the one hand, the production and supply of upstream products decreased, and on the other hand, the investment in infrastructure construction and the recovery of private investment. Increase the demand for commodities and rapidly change the relationship between supply and demand.
However, Zhang Liqun said that the rapid rise of PPI is not sustainable. The scale of production capacity is still quite large. The ability to increase production under the influence of market prices is very large. On the demand side, it is not a strong and continuous expansion demand, but a smooth recovery of demand. From the perspective of future trends, the situation of demand recovery is more and more gradual, and the situation of supply recovery will become more and more obvious, so the future supply and demand relationship will develop in a balanced direction.
Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Economic Forecasting Department of China National Information Center, also believes that the situation that total social supply is greater than total demand in 2017 has not changed, and the lack of price has risen. From the perspective of industrial product prices, the kinetic energy of further sharp rebound in international commodity prices is still insufficient. Chinaâ€™s overcapacity problem is still relatively prominent, and prices are unlikely to continue to rise.
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