Before the end of this month, the National Development and Reform Commission's electricity price adjustment plan is expected to be announced, including structural adjustments to the on-grid tariffs in some regions, and an average of about 2.5 points on the sales price to achieve a smoother relationship.
At the same time, the document proposed by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Electricity Regulatory Commission to accelerate the reform of electricity prices has now ended the internal consultation process, and it is expected to be introduced in the near future. The policy may propose a new on-grid tariff mechanism linking bidding online, accelerating the verification of transmission and distribution prices, selling electricity prices and on-grid tariffs, which will change the current status of the on-grid tariff executive.
In fact, the electricity price reform has been brewing for a long time, but the promotion has been repeatedly resisted. The two coal-electricity linkages have not fundamentally solved the contradiction between coal and electricity, and the power industry has called for a fundamental fundamental change. Wang Shuang, a researcher at United Securities, said that the original intention of the electricity price adjustment policy is to adjust the profit difference of the power industry in the eastern and western regions. However, in the long run, the planned price adjustment is actually paving the way for market-based electricity price reform. .
origin--
Profit "differentiation" brought price adjustment and reflection statistics show that from January to August this year, the thermal power industry realized a total profit of 27.2 billion yuan (a loss of 21.6 billion yuan in the same period last year), but in the overall recovery of the power industry, the profit of different regions The situation is very different. The gap between “East and West-rich†is obvious. The deviation between regional on-grid tariffs and coal price fluctuations is the main reason for this phenomenon.
It is understood that the electricity price adjustment tentatively cuts the on-grid tariffs of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai and other eastern provinces slightly, while the on-grid tariffs of the central and western provinces such as Gansu and Shaanxi are slightly raised to alleviate the current profitability of the power industry. Sexuality between the rich and the poor.
The disclosed three quarterly reports of listed companies show that thermal power generation in the eastern coastal areas (Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) increased significantly year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Among them, Shennan Power's third-quarter net profit increased 16 times year-on-year, Baoxin Energy's third quarter net profit Compared with the same period of last year, Huaneng International's third-quarter net profit increased by 195% in the coastal areas.
In addition, Jidong Power, Fuling Power, Huadian International (a number of southeastern coastal power companies also benefited from coal prices, sea freight down. From the performance forecast, Shanxi, Gansu and other pit-mouth power plants are still low-profit or Losses, such as the net profit of Zhaze Power, Jidian and Xichang Power in the third quarter, are still in a loss or meager profit.
The main cause of the differentiation of power companies is the imbalance of power growth. In the economic crisis, the national power generation rebounded at the bottom of this year at the end of last year. Compared with the inland areas of the central and western regions, the power level in the southeastern coastal areas is characterized by early recovery, large amplitude and long duration. In addition, the sharp decline in sea freight rates has also given more profit to power plants in the southeastern coastal areas.
Huadian International said that the adjustment of the on-grid tariffs of some provinces was to correct the regional imbalance caused by the “step-by-step†price adjustment last year. Analysts believe that since the end of last year, the price of coal has risen and fallen in different degrees. The "one size fits all" type of electricity price increase is unfair. The structural adjustment has been raised and lowered to try to eliminate it. But if it can meet expectations, it depends on How to determine the area and magnitude of the specific price adjustment.
At present, the adjustment of the on-grid price of the East and the West has not yet been announced. The three-quarter report disclosed at present can only represent the past for power companies, and the capital market is temporarily on the sidelines of the industry's expectations for the fourth quarter and next year.
influences--
The downstream enterprises benefited the most from the piezoelectric network. In 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the on-grid tariff twice on July 1 and August 20, respectively. The average on-grid price increased by 4.14 points/kWh, and the transmission and distribution price increased by an average of 0.36 points. / kWh, and sales electricity prices increased by an average of 2.61 / kWh, grid companies have been under pressure to sell electricity prices are not completely straightened out. According to relevant data from the State Grid, the loss for the first nine months of this year was 16.50 billion yuan.
It is understood that the sales price is expected to increase by about 2.5 points. Most of them are used to straighten out the sales price and eliminate the burden of grid companies. The other part is the routine desulfurization price.
In the opinion of analysts, after the sales price is smoothed out, the grid company is actually the biggest winner. The relevant personage of the Electricity Regulatory Commission said that solving the problem of loss of power grid enterprises will also help to promote electricity price reform. Relevant persons of the State Grid said that even if the electricity price adjustment can be rationalized this time, the State Grid will not be able to turn losses within this year, but this year's loss situation is expected to change next year.
The market has long been expecting an increase in sales price. In the current situation of the recovery of the real economy from the crisis, large consumers of electricity need to really stand up to the reality of rising electricity prices. Analysts believe that if the price of industrial electricity is raised, the cost impact of non-ferrous enterprises such as electrolytic aluminum will undoubtedly be great. However, with the gradual implementation of the direct purchase system of large users, the cost of buffering these users will increase. In addition, the increase in industrial electricity prices can promote the implementation of energy conservation and other environmental protection measures by power companies to promote the optimal allocation of industrial structure and the adjustment of excess capacity.
Some analysts also said that at present, China's high-energy-consuming industries have just turned positively in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the past two months. If the price of industrial electricity is raised now, it will be uncertain whether it will impact the recovery of the economy.
expected--
Electricity price reform is expected to start operation next year. In the case that the profitability of the power industry is gradually picking up and the CPI is still at a low level, the timing of the advancement of electricity price reform is relatively mature.
Although the electricity price reform has been adjusted to a "introduction" with a planned electricity price, or it can no longer be controversial, it can be understood by analysts as a "pre-reform era". After all, before the power industry in the central and western regions has yet to fall into the vicious circle of losses, the serious polarization between the rich and the poor in the power industry needs to be resolved promptly, so that it can provide a prerequisite for electricity price reform at a relatively fair starting point.
It is understood that the future regional bidding online is likely to be part of the power generation company to buy electricity from the grid company, and another part of the electricity directly negotiate with large users. In Wang Shuang's view, the implementation of electricity price reform should be carried out after the full implementation of direct purchases by large users, so that there can be multiple buyers and sellers, that is, the basis for realizing the price of electricity.
At present, the electricity buyer actually has only one power grid, and large users such as electrolytic aluminum are far from reaching the level of becoming a mature power buyer. If regional bidding is implemented under such circumstances, it is likely to leave room for power central enterprises to seek rent from the power grid, and evolve into a living space where power companies with strength and negotiation capabilities occupy small businesses.
However, Wang Shuang also said that it takes at least two or three years to achieve such a state. The reason is that the maturity and full implementation of the direct purchase system of large users will take time.
Wang Shuang said that it is expected that a substantive operational plan for electricity price reform will be introduced next year. The reason is that the conditions for China's electricity price reform will be initially available next year. As far as the power industry itself is concerned, the situation that the overall surplus of electricity supply will be promoted next year is conducive to the reform. Otherwise, the price of bidding on the Internet is likely to be higher and higher. Second, it is preliminary to judge that coal prices will be stable next year because there is still a larger The capacity can be released. From the background of the entire energy price reform, China's primary energy price reforms such as oil and natural gas have begun, and the price reform as the "last bastion" has also reached a breakthrough.
Analysts believe that once the power companies bid online, the competitive effects between power companies will undoubtedly become prominent. Among them, power companies with strong capabilities and large-capacity units and peak-shaving units are expected to gain an advantage in the competition.
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