In 2016, China's fuel ethanol production capacity was 2.71 million tons/year, fuel ethanol consumption was 2.6 million tons, and ethanol gasoline accounted for 1/5 of the country's total gasoline consumption. According to the plan, the annual utilization of fuel ethanol in China will reach 15.7 million tons in 2020. Considering the operating rate, the capacity gap is about 12.75 million tons/year. China's development of fuel ethanol, oil companies are not highly accepted, and the cost of upgrading and upgrading is huge. It is recommended that oil companies study for relevant policy support, conduct mutually beneficial cooperation with grain enterprises, and explore the feasibility of investing in advanced bio-liquid fuel technologies such as cellulosic fuel ethanol.
On September 13, 2017, 15 ministries and commissions such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the Ministry of Finance issued the “Implementation Plan for Expanding the Production of Biofuel Ethanol and Promoting the Use of Ethanol Gasoline for Vehiclesâ€, proposing that by 2020, ethanol gasoline Basic coverage is basically achieved throughout the country. Based on this calculation, it is estimated that the gasoline consumption will be reduced by 33.43 million tons in the next three years, correspondingly lowering the growth rate of conventional gasoline consumption by 2.9 percentage points. In 2020, the annual utilization of fuel ethanol in China will reach 15.7 million tons. According to the current supply capacity of China's ethanol, the capacity gap is about 12.75 million tons/year. It is recommended that oil companies study the possibility of cooperation with grain enterprises as soon as possible, and at the same time explore the feasibility of investing in advanced bio-liquid fuel technologies such as cellulosic fuel ethanol to help China's green and low-carbon transformation.
1 World Fuel Ethylene Development Status
Global fuel ethanol production and consumption have grown rapidly. In 2005-2016, global biofuel ethanol consumption increased from 36.28 million tons to 79.15 million tons (see Figure 1), with an average annual growth rate of 7.3%. At present, more than 40 countries and regions promote biofuel ethanol and motor ethanol gasoline. The annual consumption of ethanol gasoline is about 600 million tons, accounting for about 60% of the total global gasoline consumption.
The United States is the world's largest producer and consumer of biofuel ethanol, with the main raw material being corn. Fuel ethanol production in the United States began in the second oil crisis in the late 1970s. In 2016, the total production of biofuel ethanol in the United States reached 45.54 million tons (see Figure 2). E15 ethanol gasoline has been fully covered in the United States. The annual carbon dioxide emission reduction exceeds 43.5 million tons.
Brazil is the world's second largest producer and consumer of biofuel ethanol, and the first country to achieve full coverage of ethanol gasoline for vehicles. The main raw material is sugar cane. In 2016, Brazilian biofuel ethanol production reached 21.18 million tons, mainly through high proportion blending (27%), and Brazilian fuel ethanol replaced 50% of the country's gasoline.
As early as 1985, the European Union began using ethanol ethanol gasoline with a 5% ethanol content. In 2016, EU biofuel ethanol production was 4.09 million tons.
In 2016, fuel ethanol consumption in the above three countries and regions accounted for 83% of the global total, and biofuel ethanol consumption in China and Canada also showed a gradual upward trend (see Figure 3).
2 China's fuel ethanol development status and trends
2.1 China's fuel ethanol development is generally stable, but market acceptance is poor
In 2001, in order to solve the problem of aging food, improve the quality of the atmosphere and ecological environment, and adjust the energy structure, China launched the “10th Five-Year†Alcohol Energy Program to promote the use of fuel ethanol. At present, 11 provinces (regions) have piloted the promotion of E10 ethanol gasoline. In 2016, China's fuel ethanol production capacity was 2.71 million tons/year (see Table 1), and the industrial scale ranked third in the world. The fuel ethanol consumption was 2.6 million tons. The consumption of ethanol gasoline has accounted for 1/5 of the total national gasoline consumption in the same period. The sharp drop in international oil prices in the second half of 2014 led to the continuous decline in the wholesale price of domestic refined oil products. The settlement price of fuel ethanol increased with the upgrading of gasoline quality, and the price was upside down. serious. In addition, the low calorific value of ethanol gasoline, insufficient power, and more exhaust gas drainage have led to a low market acceptance of fuel ethanol in China. These have affected the promotion and application of fuel ethanol.
2.2 Policy boosts fuel ethanol during the 13th Five-Year Plan period
China's "Renewable Energy Law" and "National Medium- and Long-Term Science and Technology Development Plan" propose that by 2020, biofuel consumption will account for about 15% of all transportation fuel. The recently released “Implementation Plan for Expanding the Production of Biofuel Ethanol and Promoting the Use of Ethanol Gasoline for Vehicles†clearly proposes to promote the use of ethanol gasoline for vehicles nationwide, and basically achieve full coverage by 2020. The China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technological Research Institute predicts that China's gasoline consumption will be about 157 million tons in 2020. If the full coverage of ethanol gasoline is achieved and the E10 gasoline standard is adopted, the annual utilization of fuel ethanol will reach 15.7 million tons. Since the main position of liquid fuel in the transportation field cannot be shaken by 2040, it can be expected that the future use of fuel ethanol will be broad.
2.3 Large corn stocks ensure sufficient supply of ethanol production raw materials
In the short term, in order to destock, Chenhua will be the main raw material for fuel ethanol in China. As of the end of July 2017, China's corn stocks reached 260 million tons, far exceeding China's annual corn consumption, and corn destocking is imperative. According to the estimation of 1 ton of ethanol produced by 3.3 tons of corn, nearly half of the stock corn can be used to produce nearly 40 million tons of ethanol. According to the calculation of transportation fuels using ethanol gasoline, fuel ethanol will replace 33.43 million tons of conventional gasoline in the next three years, which is enough to support the development of ethanol gasoline before 2020. In the long run, the development of cellulosic ethanol technology is an inevitable trend. China can use more than 400 million tons of straw and forestry waste per year. If 30% is used, it can produce 20 million tons of fuel ethanol.
2.4 Need to significantly increase fuel ethanol production capacity in the next three years
In 2016, China's fuel ethanol production capacity was 2.71 million tons / year, and the fuel ethanol project capacity under construction, proposed and planned is 1.062 million tons / year (see Table 2), a total of about 3.772 million tons / year. According to the annual utilization of fuel ethanol in the year 2020, the calculation rate of production equipment is 95%, the total production capacity of fuel ethanol should reach 16.52 million tons/year, and the net production capacity needs to be 12.75 million tons/year.
2.5 Bioenergy development prospects are broad
The Paris Agreement adopted the goal of “controlling the global average temperature to a level of pre-industrial level within 2 degrees Celsiusâ€. To achieve this goal, zero or even negative emissions technologies are needed to reduce and eliminate greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Biofuel + CCS technology is considered to be the most viable negative emission technology, so biofuel related technologies will be vigorously developed. At present, the global fuel ethanol industry is mainly from the first generation (using grain and sugar cane as raw materials) and 1.5 generations (using non-grain crops such as cassava and sweet sorghum as raw materials), and upgrading to the second generation (using agricultural and forestry waste as raw materials). Conversion period. Among them, the raw material of cellulose fuel ethanol technology is agricultural and forestry waste, which mainly occupies forest land and marginal land. It does not compete with people for food and does not compete with grain. It is the future development direction.
3 The Necessity and Challenges of Developing Fuel Ethanol in China
3.1 Helps reduce China's dependence on foreign oil and ease the pressure of upstream upstream exploration and development
China's oilfield development has entered the middle and high water cut stage as a whole, and the pressure on crude oil production has increased. The domestic crude oil production and consumption gap has increased to 378 million tons/year. Affected by the decline in domestic production and the increase in consumption, China's crude oil imports continued to increase in 2016, and its external dependence rose to 65.4%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points over 2015. It is expected to be close to 70% in 2020, and oil supply security pressure is huge. . China's introduction of a fuel ethanol development plan can alleviate excessive dependence on oil imports, increase energy self-sufficiency rate, and alleviate the pressure of “hard-stable†and “hard-growth†of oil companies' production, which is conducive to the sustainable development of China's oil and gas industry.
3.2 Conducive to the optimization of raw materials in the petroleum industry's industrial chain, increase the production of high value-added products in petrochemical industry
The improvement of China's gasoline quality and the development of petrochemical products (chemical fiber) are all constrained by the high octane number of petroleum components. High oil content and development of chemical and chemical fiber require high octane components, but the high octane content of petroleum is generally only 6%. By developing fuel ethanol, the problem of insufficient resources of high-octane components of gasoline is solved, and limited high-octane component resources are used for better chemical and chemical fiber products, thereby increasing the added value of petroleum products.
3.3 Conducive to promoting China's green and low-carbon development and enhancing the competitiveness of oil products in the transportation sector
In recent years, new energy vehicles represented by electric vehicles have developed rapidly. Many European countries have announced or advocated the ban on fuel vehicles. China will also set a timetable for prohibiting fuel vehicles. The main reason is to reduce carbon emissions to cope with climate change. As a renewable energy source, biofuel ethanol can effectively reduce carbon emissions, thereby increasing the competitiveness of traditional fuel vehicles. In addition, the national carbon market is about to start, the development of fuel ethanol can effectively alleviate the pressure of emission reduction, and increase the carbon trading income of oil companies in disguise. If the national fuel ethanol utilization reaches 15.7 million tons in 2020, the CO2 emissions will be reduced by 49.5 million tons. If the carbon price is 30 yuan/ton by then, the corresponding income will reach 1.5 billion yuan.
3.4 China's development of fuel ethanol poses a challenge to the oil industry
First, the fuel and alcohol taxes and fees are unreasonable, and the acceptance of oil companies is not high. According to national regulations, the fuel ethanol settlement price is calculated according to the price conversion coefficient of 0.9111 for the military and national reserves with the supply price of No. 93 gasoline × vehicle ethanol gasoline. Since the international oil price fell in the second half of 2014, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil products has continued to decline, but the settlement prices of oil companies and fuel ethanol production enterprises are calculated based on tax-included prices, which increases the procurement cost. In addition, the state stipulates that the
methanol /ethanol gasoline produced by the blending of gasoline and gasoline components is also subject to the scope of consumption tax. It is equivalent to the petroleum company not only purchasing the fuel ethanol containing tax, but also paying the same amount of ethanol as the ethanol component in the ethanol gasoline. The consumption tax of 1.52 yuan / liter.
Second, the cost of oil storage and transportation will increase significantly. The shelf life of ethanol gasoline is short, and the requirements for storage and transportation are particularly high. If ethanol gasoline is popularized, the current gasoline storage facilities, pipelines, and oil depots need to be upgraded and upgraded, and the upgrade cost will be as high as tens of billions of yuan.
Third, the promotion of ethanol gasoline will delay the growth rate of future gasoline consumption. According to the full coverage of fuel ethanol gasoline in 2020, fuel ethanol will replace 33.43 million tons of conventional gasoline in the next three years, and the gasoline demand growth rate will drop from the original forecast of 6.7% to 3.8%.
4 Suggestions for Chinese oil companies
In view of the country's promotion of fuel ethanol, the main purpose is to develop green and low-carbon energy, protect the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain, increase farmers' income, ensure national food security (national first security) and achieve China's total poverty alleviation in 2020. The following suggestions.
First, strive for the state's tax incentives for the sale of ethanol gasoline to achieve mutual benefit and win-win. In response to the unreasonable taxation of fuel ethanol, we will strive to promote the national implementation of the policy of deducting the fuel-to-ethanol ratio and then calculate the gasoline consumption tax, and push the state to cancel the control of ethanol prices. The purchase and sale parties will negotiate and determine the settlement price based on market supply and demand. The decisive role of the market in resource allocation enables mutual benefit and win-win.
The second is to plan early and strive for initiative. From the perspective of national policies, the state has defined the direction of green and low-carbon energy transformation strategy and emphasized the determination to de-stabilize grain stocks. In addition, safeguarding the interests of farmers is an important prerequisite for China to achieve comprehensive poverty alleviation by 2020. The trend of promoting ethanol gasoline in the country is difficult to change. In the next three years, China needs to increase its fuel ethanol production capacity by at least 12.75 million tons per year. Although the current state has eliminated subsidies for ethanol production from corn and wheat, the price of stock corn still has certain advantages. Oil companies should study the possibility of cooperation with grain enterprises as soon as possible and open up the entire ethanol industry chain. The feasibility of investing in advanced bio-liquid fuel technologies such as cellulosic fuel ethanol can be studied, and national strategic reserve technologies such as biofuel + CCS technology can be explored. (The author is Fei Huawei, Wang Lining, He Chunyan, Chen Rui, Institute of Economics and Technology, China National Petroleum Corporation)
Tensile Testers
Tensile Testers,High Quality Tensile Testers,Tensile Testers Details, CN
Dongguan Huitong Automatic Machinery Technology Co., Ltd , https://www.breezesolution.com