Global industry is expected to continue to recover

Thanks to the economic recovery and the improvement of the financial market, the global industry, especially in Asia, the Americas and Europe, is steadily continuing to rebound. Industry experts believe that the two major themes of global industry this year are business mergers and acquisitions and increase market share. At present, the most turbulent period has passed, and this year will show moderate growth and achieve sustained recovery.

Globalized industry steadily recovers under multiple factors
At the end of May, due to the impact of the European debt problem on the global economic recovery, the price of crude oil fell below US$70/barrel and the prices of global petrochemical products including olefins, aromatics and polyolefins fell sharply, indicating whether the market will weaken. worry. But Moody's Investors Service still insists on its predictions that the chemical industry in Asia, the Americas and Europe is steadily continuing to rebound.

Moody's said at the end of May that the recovery in demand, raw material prices are low, and a good balance sheet is stimulating a steady recovery in the global chemical industry. In this context, the global chemical industry's credit environment will not change significantly in the next 12-18 months. Moody's believes that the current recovery of chemical industry demand is global. Among them, the demand in the Asian region has reached the level before the financial crisis, but the demand in the US and Europe is still far from the pre-crisis level. Although the current euro crisis in southern Europe is worrying, the company is still optimistic about the growth in the Nordic region. Moody's expects industrial output in the US and Eurozone to increase by 4.3% and 2.3% respectively. In 2011, US industrial output growth will fall slightly to 4.1%, while the Eurozone growth rate will increase to 3.4%.

Moody's pointed out that this year's global chemical industry M&A transactions are expected to grow, and some companies will benefit from M&A transactions due to their abundant cash flow. The activity of M&A transactions in the global chemical industry has resumed since the end of 2009. The momentum of this recovery is still continuing, and some large M&A transactions are expected to occur in the second half of this year. But Moody's also pointed out that because the global economy has just emerged from the shadow of the crisis, most companies' mergers and acquisitions are still cautious. In 2011, it will truly usher in a strong rebound in the activity of M&A transactions.

Moody's said that considering the current situation, some factors may hinder the progress of the recovery. For example, in the next 12-18 months, the residential and automobile markets are still unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels. Governments may gradually withdraw from economic stimulus policies. The recovery has had an adverse effect. However, Moody's still insists that the global economy is unlikely to have a double dip.

Global industrial mergers and acquisitions are in progress
Thanks to the economic recovery and the improvement of the financial market, global chemical M&A transactions have also re-energized. According to the latest data from US investment bank Young&Partners, the amount of M&A transactions completed by global industry in the first quarter of this year was about $4.5 billion, far higher than the $300 million in the first quarter of 2009, which was the most raging global financial crisis. As of the end of the first quarter, the number of M&A transactions announced by Global Industries but not completed reached $19 billion, compared to $6.3 billion at the end of 2009. Peter Young, president of Y&P, said that these figures clearly demonstrate that the activity of global industrial M&A transactions is continuing to increase.

Analysts at BB&T in the United States said that the global chemical industry M&A activity will rebound sharply in 2010 as strategic buyers with sufficient cash hope to accelerate business growth through M&A transactions. In the 15 chemical companies tracked by BB&T, the cash on the 2009 balance sheet has reached a high of nearly $8.3 billion in the past 10 years. Analysts said: "In 2009, most strategic buyers with M&A plans did not implement M&A plans, just waiting for opportunities. We believe that this M&A demand will break out in 2010. Business integration will become the global chemical M&A market in 2010. The main drivers are coatings and adhesives such as Valspar, RPM International and HB Fuller, which may appear on the strategic buyers' acquisition list. In addition, companies that have just emerged from the shadow of bankruptcy may also become potential acquisition targets. As of September 30, 2009, global chemical M&A transactions totaled US$39 billion, mostly from Dow Chemical's acquisition of Rohm and Haas and BASF's acquisition of Ciba Refinement.

By 2015, China will replace the United States as the world's largest producer of chemical products, and the expansion of capacity in the Middle East will result in the elimination of the less competitive capacity of the European petrochemical industry, which accounts for about 20% of the total production capacity of European petrochemicals. %.

European chemical industry embarks on the road to recovery
The European Chemical Industry Association (Cefic) predicts that EU chemical production will increase by 9.5% in 2010 compared to 2009 and will increase by 2% in 2011. The basic chemicals sector is currently rebounding rapidly, but the production levels of all chemicals (excluding drugs) are still well below pre-crisis levels.

According to industry insiders, the European chemical industry demand will be on the road to recovery after experiencing a sharp drop in late 2008 and early 2009. The current chemical production data released by EU countries shows that EU chemical production has bottomed out in 2009 and the chemical industry is in the process of recovery. However, as downstream consumers of the chemical industry remain cautious about the current economic and market recovery, this recovery is not a sustainable recovery of large-scale rebuilding of inventories by downstream consumers, but more driven by the government's fiscal stimulus plan.

In the past ten years, the business divestiture has reshaped the European chemical industry. The most significant business divestitures in the chemical industry in Europe include the separation of France's Total Arkema, the Swiss Roche company's stripping of Givaudan, the German Bayer's divestiture of LANXESS, and the Swiss Slikon-Norhua divested Syngenta, Norwegian Hydro, and other companies. The purpose of these chemical giants to divest assets is to focus on developing core businesses, and the divested business is usually a business that can operate independently.

Jonathan Taylor, head of Close Brothers in London, UK, said: "The divestiture business allows the company to concentrate on its core business and financial resources. The divested business also has the opportunity to develop freely. It turns out that most of the divested business is acquired. Very good development, the most successful are Givaudan, Syngenta, Yala and Celanese." Celanese was stripped from Hoechst in 1999.

Analysts said that business divestiture is an eternal theme of global industry, and the future chemical industry will continue to stage business divestiture. Evonik Industries has planned to divest its real estate and energy businesses, focusing its focus on the chemical business. Bayer also has business divestiture considerations, and some of the world's oil giants will also be divested in the future.

The German chemical industry began to recover slowly. German chemical production in the fourth quarter of 2009 increased by 5.3% from the third quarter and by 4.1% from the fourth quarter of 2008. Sales revenue reached 36.5 billion euros, an increase of 4.2% over the third quarter and a slight decrease of 0.3% from the fourth quarter of 2008.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, the German chemical industry producer price index rose by 0.7% from the third quarter, but fell by 2.9% from the fourth quarter of 2008. For 2010, VCI maintained its previous forecast, with chemical production up 5% year-on-year and sales revenue up 6% year-on-year.

The recovery in the chemical industry will continue, but the recovery will be slower. Export growth is the main driver of the recovery of the German chemical industry, and demand from Asia, South America and Eastern Europe is expected to grow further in the coming months. However, the growth momentum of the EU market is small. VCI said that overall, the German chemical industry will not regress in the next six months. However, VCI said that the data for the fourth quarter of last year was compared with the fourth quarter of 2008, when the market was extremely weak. German chemical production still fell by 7% in the fourth quarter of last year compared to pre-crisis levels. The German chemical industry's capacity utilization rate was 77.9% in the quarter, still much lower than the normal level of 82%.

Japan's chemical industry is expected to continue to recover
Affected by export demand, especially from the strong growth of demand in the Chinese market, the Japanese chemical industry is expected to continue to experience a certain degree of recovery in the fiscal year 2010/2011 (April 1, 2010 to March 31, 2011).

Chemical production rebounded. According to the latest data released by the Japan Petrochemical Industry Association (JPCA), despite the sluggish domestic demand, the output of 18 major petrochemical products in Japan in December 2009 showed a significant increase year-on-year. Among them, ethylene production was 663,400 tons, up 30% year-on-year; LDPE production was 152,400 tons, up 23% year-on-year; HDPE production was 104,600 tons, up 26% year-on-year; PP production was 251,400 tons, up 15% year-on-year; PS production was 58,300 tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year. In addition, benzene production increased by 26% year-on-year, xylene production increased by 23%, styrene production increased by 24%, PVC production increased by 19%, methyl methacrylate production increased by 56%, and ethylene oxide production increased year-on-year. 32%, ethylene glycol production increased by 16% year-on-year, acetaldehyde production increased by 43%, acrylonitrile production increased by 52%, SBR production increased by 8%, and butyl rubber production increased by 21%.

Profitability has improved. Affected by factors such as continued sluggish domestic demand, rising unemployment and a strong yen exchange rate, the Japanese chemical industry is still facing greater pressure. But the profitability of most Japanese chemical producers has begun to pick up.

Japan’s Mitsui Co., Ltd. achieved a profit of 1.4 billion yen ($15 million) in its chemical business from September 1 to December 31 last year, compared with a loss of 4.2 billion yen in the same period last year. The company said it was mainly stimulated by the increased profitability of the phenol and polyvinyl chloride resin business, and the increase in product sales prices, coupled with continued strong growth in demand in the Chinese market, provided support for profitability.

In the fourth quarter of last year, the operating profit of the chemical business of Asahi Kasei Corporation of Japan reached 21.8 billion yen, which was also caused by the recovery in Asian market demand.

Business integration is at the time. Affected by the continued economic downturn in the domestic economy, the Japanese chemical industry is undergoing large-scale integration. Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation, Japan's largest chemical group, plans to acquire Mitsubishi Rayon and plans to complete the acquisition by the end of March. Producers say that the competitiveness of naphtha crackers in Japan needs to be strengthened. Currently, Japanese naphtha crackers are generally aging, and the scale is also small. Analysts said that some naphtha crackers in Japan will be integrated in 2010.

Mitsui Chemicals Co., another major chemical company in Japan, shares the same view and has developed a corresponding development strategy. In the future, the company will focus its development on emerging markets while increasing the production capacity of high value-added products. As early as November of last year, Mitsui Chemicals Co., Ltd. announced that it had reached an agreement with Sinopec on a joint venture between phenol and EPDM. It is estimated that the total investment of the two joint venture projects will reach 60 billion yen.

The market focus shifts overseas. Kiichi Murashima, an economist at Citigroup (Tokyo), said that the Japanese economy has experienced a temporary stagnation in the 2009/2010 fiscal year, which is stimulated by steady growth in exports, especially driven by strong growth in Asian exports, and is likely to return to growth. . However, due to the economic downturn and the decline in unit labor costs, Japan's domestic deflation will continue until 2011. In addition, the strong performance of the yen against the US dollar is still widely concerned by Japanese chemical producers, as this will reduce the competitiveness of Japanese chemical exports. It is expected that the yen-dollar exchange rate in the first half of 2010 may rise to a high of 84 yen to 1 US dollar, which will further stimulate Japanese chemical producers to resolve to shift their market focus overseas.

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