High oil prices of four people "conspiracy"
In the long run, oil prices are the result of global economic development and technological progress. But the short-term trend has been affected by the political pattern. Since 2018, the global economic outlook has been clouded, and the price of Brent crude has reached a high of 80 US dollars. Four people have contributed to this.
I support large-scale oil and gas and a lot of energy, Hillary, my campaign opponent, she supports wind power, and she supports other types of new energy that don't have enough capacity yet.
- Donald Trump
I must admit that oil is Russia's main source of revenue. He is the most important source of economic development, project budget, and social welfare.
- Vladmir Putin
Crude oil prices are determined by the economic cycle (demand) in the long run, but are strongly subject to political interference (supply) in the short term. The current global oil supply game is determined by the following four people.
1
Venezuela, Maduro
Venezuela is the only member of OPEC in South America, with the world's largest oil resources, its oil reserves are the sum of Iran and Iraq, more than Saudi Arabia, equivalent to half of the entire Middle East.
May 20th is the day to pass the message of love. It is also the election day in Venezuela. Maduro (Maduro was re-elected as president and once again won a six-year term.
The son of the bus driver excitedly shouted "Let the enemy see our strength" on the streets of Caracas. His assistants guided the people who voted for Maduro to go to the nearby red tent and vote. The voucher receives the spree. Inside the spree, there are 6 bags of food and 2 vouchers for the largest local supermarket.
Maduro, the former subway driver, feels that the poor are his most reliable political resource. They are very happy to accept free food and never ask why many of the world's largest oil resources countries are hungry?
After the re-election of Maduro, he shouted in the streets of the capital, Caracas.
Venezuela, relying on oil exports, per capita GDP climbed to $15,000 in 2015. But in the past three years, hyperinflation has killed the economy and caused a serious recession, so that Maduro asked the statistics department to stop publishing any economic indicators.
In the face of accusations at home and abroad, Maduro felt a little wronged. The current economic difficulties are not caused by him. The bane is his predecessor, Chavez buried. After joining the OPEC organization, Venezuela's oil exports increased sharply, but the rich foreign exchange reserves did not form capital into production materials, but directly replaced with food and clothing and electrical appliances.
Venezuela realized communism ahead of time overnight, free medical free education, free housing, and gasoline sold cheaper than water (1 liter of gasoline retail price of about 0.27 yuan). The country has never developed a complete agricultural industrial system, and the national economy is extremely fragile.
The simple barter trade of oil, without the continuous supply of domestic products, the shadow of hyperinflation goes hand in hand. In 2016, the CPI reached 254%. At the beginning of the year, the money for buying mobile phones can only buy mobile phone cases by the end of the year. This is still officially released data, the external estimate of CPI reached 481%. In 2017, inflation further intensified, and the IMF estimated that the CPI reached 1642%. The currency has depreciated sharply. In dollar terms, the Venezuelan currency depreciated by 90% in just three years.
Venezuela's currency, Bolivar, has depreciated 90% against the US dollar since 2014, and today the value of 1000 Bolivar is not comparable to the price of printed paper.
Maduro also regretted that he should take a look at economics. In order to curb inflation, he naturally introduced a "limit order." The government directly priced each item and implemented a thorough planned economy. For example, milk powder is priced at 300 Bolivars, and the price will be caught at will.
The consequences are disastrous. Producers are not producing under unreasonable pricing, and supply suddenly disappears. The grain harvested by the farmers will not be taken to the market except for their own food. The fisherman fishes every day, eats the leftover fish, and pours it into the lake. Under the stupid price limit bill, Venezuela experienced extreme material shortages.
As a result, oil production is also tragic. Because workers are on strike, equipment is old, and technology is backward, crude oil production has fallen from an average of 1.9 million barrels per day in 2017 to 1.4 million barrels in April this year. Since the second half of 2017, the average daily output per quarter has fallen by more than 200,000 barrels.
Venezuela will also face punishment from Europe and the United States. His opponents publicly accused the election of being unfair, and the United States and other countries did not recognize the results of the election. If the United States implements a trade embargo, domestic supplies are even scarcer.
At OPEC, Maduro did not get the support of OPEC. The largest member of the organization, Saudi Arabia, has its own "small ninety-nine" and is unwilling to help. The color of political dictatorship made him unable to obtain help from European and American countries. Although Cuba and several other fraternal countries shouted, it was also a poor buddy. Maduro’s biggest hope is still from China.
For China, Maduro calls:
First, it won't depend on it. He has to pay back $20 billion of the remaining $65 billion in loans. But before repayment, he hoped that China would give more loan support to improve mining and transportation conditions. It is a pity that the first railway aided by China is currently in the doldrums.
Second, the "genius" proposed to use the Venezuelan underground oil as a reserve currency to issue block-chain "petroleum". In fact, he sold the domestic underground oil to investors in advance, in exchange for foreign exchange reserves, and stabilized domestic inflation.
2
Saudi Arabia, Ben-Salaman
Mohammad bin Salman, 32, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, usually called with the initials MBS.
OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) is the world's largest monopoly group, and Saudi Arabia is the largest monopolist in this monopoly group.
Ben Salaman is the child of the third wife of King Salaman. Unlike his dozens of cousins, he was educated in Saudi Arabia, deeply understands Saudi Arabia and became a senior adviser to his father. The MBS of youth helped his father succeed in succession. And in early 2017, he crowded out his cousin and officially became the Crown Prince.
After gaining the status of Crown Prince, MBS launched a "anti-corruption" campaign that shocked the world in November. He arrested 40 princes, including Al-Waleed bin Talal, known as the "Buffett" in the Middle East, and completely stabilized the ruling. He himself may take over as King of Saudi Arabia in the second half of 2018.
Ben-Salaman is the most influential person in the Middle East
Ben Salaman is ambitious. He hopes that Saudi Arabia can quickly integrate into the modern world like the UAE, and in 2016 it proposed the Saudi Economic Reform Program "Vision 2030" (Vision 2030). In the next 15 years, Saudi Arabia will develop a non-oil industry, encourage the private economy, promote e-government, and achieve sustainable development.
In Saudi Arabia's Neom, MBS plans to build another Dubai, with 3,500 square kilometers of 50 small islands, Saudi Arabia to develop robots, new energy, biotechnology and advanced manufacturing.
A grand blueprint requires huge capital. In addition to relying on oil exports for foreign exchange, Ben Salaman’s most important way of financing is to promote the listing of Saudi Aramco (Saudi Aramco), which will create the most human finance history: $100 billion, possibly in Hong Kong. Listing.
For Salaman, rising oil prices are the most effective tool to promote Saudi Aramco's listing. He needs oil prices to rise! MBS fully demonstrates his ability to squat.
Take the initiative to contact Israel and bet Trump in the US general election. Utilizing the United States and Israel to suppress Iran and force Iranian oil to withdraw from the global supply system, Saudi Arabia has become the country with the largest capacity change in the OPEC organization. In other words, the marginal fluctuations in global oil production are determined by Saudi Arabia. The most influential for short-term oil prices is Saudi Arabia.
Going to Russia to persuade this largest non-OPEC oil exporter to agree to limit production. Since 2016, Russia has been in the same proportion of production as OPEC, which has pushed oil prices up. Despite the decline in exports, the rebound in crude oil prices has allowed Russia to make more than $40 billion in 2017 than in 2016.
Saudi Arabia is the country with the largest output and the largest change in capacity in the OPEC organization. Saudi Arabia has the ability to change the global supply of crude oil in the short term, thereby affecting global oil prices.
Now, in the early days of the Saudi Aramco IPO, Saudi economic reforms have reached a critical moment. Ben Salaman needs stronger crude oil prices. He does not hide that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices above $100.
Ben Salaman pays close attention to China, not only because China is the region with the fastest growing global oil demand, but also because of China's transportation strategy, which also affects Saudi decision-making. For example, the pipeline transportation under the Belt and Road Initiative will allow China to import Saudi crude oil more stably, although transportation costs may increase significantly.
3
Russia, Igor Shechin
Igor Ivanovich Sechin (Игорь Иванович Сечин/Ignor Sechin), 58 years old, CEO of Russian Petroleum.
Russia, the world's largest oil exporter except OPEC.
Xie Qin’s successful political career comes from two firm support and follow-up. In the 1980s, at St. Peter's University, he firmly supported Professor Sobchak's political stance, and Professor Sobchak was the life mentor of President Putin. In 1991, he firmly followed Putin into the St. Petersburg city government. This made him a synonym for "loyalty" and received Putin's responsibility.
Xie Qin looks old, in fact he is 8 years younger than Putin.
Since 1999, Xie Qin has served as the deputy secretary general of the Putin office and in 2004 entered the board of the Russian oil company (Rosneft), officially in charge of Russia's energy lifeline.
Soon, Xie Qin launched an attack on Yukos Petroleum (the largest energy group in Russia at the time). The Russian state prosecutor accused Yukos’s boss, Russia’s richest man, Khodorkovsky, of committing commercial fraud, tax evasion, forgery of documents, murder and other crimes and imprisoned him.
Then, through the newly established mysterious Baikal Financial Group, Xie Qin acquired Yukos, the most important subsidiary of Yukos. In the final step, the Russian National Oil Company controlled the Baikal Financial Group. In the following years, Russia’s national oil will continue to receive other assets of the Yukos Group at a discount of 40%.
This series of clear dark capital and legal arrangements made Russian national oil company Rosneft one of the largest oil companies in Russia.
In 2006, Sechin promoted the listing of Russian national oil on the London Stock Exchange, raising $10.7 billion, becoming the largest IPO in Russian history, with a market capitalization of $79.8 billion, surpassing lukoil and officially topping Russia's largest oil and gas company.
Subsequently, Rosneft began to enter Venezuela, Azerbaijan and India to increase oil production capacity. This expansion of foreign cooperation reached its peak in 2011. Russian oil and British Petroleum (BP) exchanged shares to develop offshore oil on the Russian Arctic Ocean shelf; and cooperated with Exxon Mobil to develop oil in the Black Sea region. In exchange, Russian oil obtained licenses to extract oil in the US Gulf of Mexico and Texas.
In 2012, Russian oil acquired the third largest oil company in Russia, TNK-BP. The shares were forcedly purchased from major shareholders BP and ARR. Russian oil has become the world's largest oil company.
In 2016-2017, Russian oil made the most mysterious shareholding changes. In December 2016, Petronas claimed to sell its $11 billion stake to Glencore in Switzerland and the Qatar investment Authority. But the Glencore Group said they only actually bought $300 million in stock, which is equivalent to 0.54% of the total share capital. The company that bought the $11 billion stake was called the QHG Group, a new company registered in the Cayman Islands, and the shareholders of the QHG Group were not made public. At this point, the Russian state-owned holding group only holds 50% of the shares of Russian Petroleum.
Half of the mysterious Russian oil (Rosneft) shares are scattered throughout the world, and holders are not even aware
As the most loyal supporter and policy implementer of Putin, Xie Qin is eager for oil prices to rise. He directly contributed to the meeting between Saudi Crown Prince MBS and Putin, and strongly supported Russia's limited production.
He is 8 years younger than Putin. He is a rumored "Putin's shadow". Can he even become the next "Putin"?
Xie Qin has a mysterious contact with China. Petronas sold $9 billion in shares to Huaxin Group in 2017. The boss of Huaxin, Ye Jianming, was taken away in 2018 and the company was officially taken over.
4
United States, Harold Ham
Harold Hamm, 73, CEO of Continental Resources, and Energy Policy Advisor to President Trump.
The United States surpassed Saudi Arabia in 2017 to become the world's largest oil producer.
Harold Ham, born in poverty, is the 13th child of a common farmer's family. At the age of 16, I went to the gas station to work to subsidize the family. Unarmed and self-made, build your own oil empire.
Like Trump, Haroldham is a typical American dream representative of the grassroots class. It has priority in interests and is good at tricks, but never hides his desires.
The turning point of Ham's career In the 1990s, he took advanced horizontal drilling and hydraulic methods to mine low-permeability oil wells in North Dakota, and his bold adventures earned him a rich harvest, and he also made North Dakota Become the second largest oil producing state in the United States.
Ham has the same growth background and "three views" as Trump.
The successful bet makes Ham believe that only a bold technological adventure can make American energy self-sufficient. He became the most diligent standard-bearer of the American shale oil in the last decade.
The technological innovation of shale oil has allowed the United States to reverse investment in the low oil price. In 2017, the global oil market investment was only 2% of the district, and the overall investment scale was 40% lower than that of 2014. However, the US shale oil investment increased by 42% and the total investment reached US$138 billion.
Not only that, but a large amount of venture capital swarmed to promote related technological progress, and the cost of oil production per unit of oil wells fell by 35%. In the United States, the United States became the only country in the world with an average daily oil production of more than 10 million barrels. From 2018 to the present, the United States' new oil supply accounted for 90% of the global new oil supply.
The United States itself can profit from rising oil prices, unlike the previous consumption damage.
Hamm and President Trump are the same age, have similar growth backgrounds, and have the same taste. They are born with populists who cannot understand the traditional political elite. Absolutely "priority of personal interests, the interests of the United States."
His character is revealed through two things. First, his famous divorce case. In 2012, he divorced his second wife. In order to avoid the entanglement of his wife and economist's wife, he directly wrote a $990 million check to create the most expensive divorce case in the United States. Second, some scientists have accused that the hydraulic method of refining shale oil may cause instability of the earth's crust and create potential seismic risks. He ran directly to the relevant university and asked the school to dismiss these geographers and even threaten them.
Shale oil makes the United States the largest oil consumer and the largest oil producer. The high oil price is no longer just a negative factor.
Hamm feels that the United States needs high oil prices, and the investment in shale oil over the past 10 years will receive a significant return in 2018-2025.
5
Four-person wrestling Sino-US trade negotiations
Maduro hopes that the Sino-US trade negotiations will break down. Before the Sino-US trade war broke out, China’s import of crude oil from the United States may partially shift to Venezuela. China may be willing to participate in the “coin coin†to provide foreign exchange reserves for him. If China promises to increase the balance of trade in energy imports from the United States, Venezuela will lose one gold owner. Maduro’s political career is even more dangerous.
Ben Salaman, plans to visit China. He wants to make it clear that if China-US trade negotiations are reached, will China increase its imports of crude oil, will it reduce Saudi exports? More importantly, he needs to understand that the Belt and Road strategy bypasses the Straits of Malacca and the oil terminal invested and built in Gwadar Port of Pakistan is still in use?
Xie Qin, also want to come to China. If China imports more crude oil from the United States, the investment and transportation of Sino-Russian crude oil pipelines will continue to progress as scheduled. Will China reduce imports from Russia? How to recycle long-distance pipeline investment?
Ham, on the one hand, standing behind Trump, suggested continuing to exert pressure on China to promote large-scale export of shale oil; on the other hand, actively receiving capital from China. He negotiated with CIC to allow Chinese capital to invest heavily in rail transportation and oil pipeline transportation on the US road. After all, the biggest bottleneck in the export of US shale oil is not production but transportation.
The fate of the four men was tied to oil prices in 2018, and they joined forces to give the world a script on oil prices.
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