Abstract In August and September, the crisis of international trade friction in China's steel industry was very serious. According to the data, in addition to the five anti-dumping investigations published in the monthly report of the previous month, from the end of August to the end of September, six countries including Turkey, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, Brazil, and Thailand...
In August and September, the crisis of international trade friction in China's steel industry was very serious. According to the data, in addition to the five anti-dumping investigations published in the monthly report of the previous month, from the end of August to the end of September, six countries including Turkey, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, Brazil, and Thailand respectively cold-rolled stainless steel, carbon and alloy steel pipes. Anti-dumping investigations initiated by cold rolled coils, wire rods, seamless carbon steel pipes and stainless steel pipes are undoubtedly a big resistance for China's steel exports. However, with the low price of domestic prices, the competitive advantage of China's steel prices in the international market is highlighted, and steel exports are expected to remain at a high level in the later period.
Since the beginning of this year, China's economic downward pressure has continued to increase, and whether GDP growth rate can remain above 7% has become a suspense. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August, the national fixed asset investment increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from January to July. The national real estate development investment was 610.63 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 3.5% year-on-year. From January to July, it fell by 0.8 percentage points.
Since September, the pace of steady growth in infrastructure investment has accelerated again, especially for railway investment. In September, the National Development and Reform Commission approved a total of eight railway projects with a total investment of 321.7 billion yuan. Since the beginning of this year, in the rail transit sector including urban rail transit, intercity railways and high-speed rail, the total investment of newly approved projects has reached 102.2 billion yuan, and rail transit construction has become a major focus in China's infrastructure sector.
From the macro data in August, the performance of infrastructure investment was eye-catching. From January to August, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 5.9164 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in January-July. The only areas in which the three contribution areas of real estate and infrastructure have risen have played a key role in steady growth. However, due to the lack of funds from local governments and large state-owned enterprises, the investment projects that have been approved have not been fully started, and it is difficult to form huge market demand.
In summary, the fluctuation of iron ore prices in September made the cost support stable and the steel social inventories fell further, but the crude steel output in September may rise further. Although the traditional demand peak season in October, the current demand release still needs to observe the implementation of the steady growth project. In addition, whether the real estate can recover and the trend of iron ore price is also an important factor restricting the stabilization of steel prices. At present, the three factors of supply, demand and cost affecting the trend of steel prices in October are not satisfactory. It is expected that the domestic steel market will remain weak in October.
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