The economic growth rate will re-explore the bottom line and move toward doubts in the second half of the year.

Abstract On July 15th, Beijing's rainy weather continued, and the previous day was still sunny, while China's economy in the second quarter also appeared to have similar anomalous characteristics. According to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the day, China’s economic growth rate in the first half of the year was 7.6%, compared with 7.7% in the first quarter...
The rainy days in Beijing on July 15 were continuous, and the previous day was still sunny, while China’s economy in the second quarter seemed to show similar abnormalities.

According to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the same day, China's economic growth rate in the first half of the year was 7.6%, which was slightly lower than the 7.7% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, China’s economic growth rate was 7.5%, which is exactly the target set by the government’s work report this year.

If the next step of the economy continues to decline, even close to 7%, whether China needs to launch a new investment stimulus plan, this issue has become the focus of attention.

The reporter learned exclusively that on July 15, the State Council think tanks held a symposium in Beijing to solicit opinions from some well-known economists, especially on the current situation analysis, the definition of the bottom line, whether to introduce stimulus policies, how to speed up reforms, etc. Specific recommendations.

The Premier of the State Council, Li Keqiang, recently emphasized the role of maintaining stable economic growth. He presided over the symposium on economic situation in some provinces on July 9. He emphasized that macroeconomic regulation and control should be based on the current and long-term perspective, so that the economic operation is at A reasonable range, economic growth rate, employment level, etc. do not slip out of the "lower limit", and the price increase does not exceed the "upper limit".

According to this newspaper, the State Council is expected to analyze the economic situation in the first half of this year on Wednesday (July 17) and deploy economic work in the second half of the year.

At present, most researchers suggest that there is no need to introduce new stimulus policies. Liu Wei, vice president of Peking University, pointed out that some of the surplus industries and enterprises are now too low in economic speed, and they are constantly lobbying for local policies to accelerate development. In fact, the economic growth rate is now very high.

“Now the absolute level of 7%-8% is not low, which is within the expected target,” he said at the July 14th China Economic Growth Report 2013. He believes that if a big investment stimulus plan is introduced again, inflation will surely come back, and the economy may not be able to accelerate, which makes the economic stagflation obvious.

In contrast, our reporter also learned that the National Development and Reform Commission has held several economic situation analysis meetings and symposiums. Some local governments have suggested opening up surplus industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum and cement because these industries are in the west. It belongs to relatively advanced production capacity. In particular, the improvement of people's livelihood in the central and western regions requires a certain growth rate. Therefore, the higher authorities are urged to give greater local central financial support.

The economy entered a critical point in the second quarter

The newly released data has caused the outside world to talk about the growth rate in the future. Bank of Communications analyst Tang Jianwei judged that the economic growth rate in the third and fourth quarters of 2013 is expected to be 7.4% and 7.2% respectively. However, he judged that the possibility of a "hard landing" in the economy is very small, and the annual economic growth rate may still remain at around 7.5%.

Tang Jianwei believes that the economic slowdown is the performance of the economic development to a new stage. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the potential growth rate of the economy is about 10.5%, and the potential growth rate during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period will drop to around 7.5%. "We should face up to the arrival of this turning point and not use the ideas of the period of rapid economic growth to regulate the economy."

The above statement is not without reason. The figures show that despite the slowdown in economic growth this year, the number of new jobs has reached a new high. For example, this year, the number of new employees in urban areas was more than 7 million, up from 6.94 million in the same period last year. Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that from the results of the survey, it should be said that new jobs are still increasing this year.

Sheng believes that the current decline in China's economic growth rate should have its certain inevitability, and the history of some developed countries has been similar. The most important thing is that the moderate decline in growth rate is also the result of active control by the Party Central Committee and the State Council.

Judging from its judgment, the current economic operation in the five consecutive quarters is in the range of 7.4%-7.9%, and the operation is relatively stable. For the current situation of different companies, "this may also indicate that the current situation is indeed complicated, but on the other hand, it reflects that during this structural adjustment period, everyone is experiencing pain during structural transformation. ."

Regulation of the bottom line is being collected

However, if the economy falls below 7.5% after the second and third quarters, or even 7%, whether it is necessary to introduce stimulus policies is the focus of current attention.

Our reporter was informed that on July 15th, the State Council think tanks convened a famous economist to collect opinions on the economic situation in the first half of the year and the second half of the policy, including whether to introduce stimulus policies and how to determine the bottom line.

On July 9, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in an important speech on the economic situation of some provinces and regions in Guangxi. He pointed out that since the beginning of this year, China's economic operation has remained stable overall, and the main indicators are still in a reasonable range of annual expectations. Steady progress, upgrading and upgrading.

However, in the end, the reasonable range refers to between 7% and 8%, or between 7.5% and 8%. At present, opinions vary from one to the other. Some analysts pointed out that the current decision-making level and the lower limit of economic growth rate indicate that the market is still worried about the economic downturn. The recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index indicates that the above statement has boosted the market.

Liu Wei believes that those who are really worried about the economic slowdown are some industries with overcapacity, especially some companies lobbying local governments. Some companies and local governments cannot afford the economy at a rate of 7%-8%, but the speed of around 7% is not low compared with other countries in the world.

Tang Jianwei pointed out that considering the structural problems is the key reason for restricting the current economic growth rate, the government has recently clearly focused on the macro-policy focus on “adjusting the structure” and “promoting reform”.

It is expected that there will be downward pressure on economic growth in the second half of the year. However, in order to ensure that economic growth does not fall below the “lower limit”, the government has recently introduced some moderate “steady growth” measures. If the economic growth rate in the third quarter is further down, it will not rule out that the government will introduce a moderate economic stimulus policy. Possible.

Promote reform and break the pattern of interests

According to this newspaper, the State Council is expected to hold a standing meeting on July 17 to analyze the economic situation in the first half of the year and deploy economic work in the second half of the year. Will there be some stimulus measures in the second half of the year to realize the need for growth?

In this regard, the current society is very concerned. Qiu Xiaohua, chief economist of Xinhuadu Group, believes that in the long run, the Chinese economy may be in a state of “not dead or alive”. It is difficult to solve economic problems by simply radically stimulating the economy. In addition to adjusting the aggregate demand, the idea also needs to improve supply.

Our reporter was informed that the total planned investment for the newly started project in June is 61.857 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.9%, which is about three times the growth rate of the previous months. However, how to implement so many projects planned investment is a huge problem.

Liu Huiyong, president of the Investment Advisory Professional Committee of the China Investment Association, pointed out that the local enthusiasm for investment is very high. It is necessary to analyze in detail. If it is not a surplus industry, the central government should give support, such as subway construction, the more the construction is late, the more local congestion. In addition, countries like the school bus should invest big money.

Like the subway itself, it belongs to the people's livelihood project. If the country does not take money, but it should allow the local government to issue bonds, otherwise the local people's livelihood projects cannot be started; in addition, the land market should be marketized, the rural collective land should be confirmed, and the real estate should be allowed to be realized in the future, otherwise there will be no property rights. It is difficult for farmers to get rich.

"At present, the state is increasing the intensity of decentralization and decentralization, like decentralization, but the financing bonds are not decentralized, and there is no power to issue bonds. This is equivalent to the fact that it is difficult to implement the decentralization of power." Liu Huiyong said.

Liu Wei believes that there is not much room for the next policy of stimulating the economy by issuing currency. The next step is to complete the marketization of land.

If urbanization does not have the marketization of land, it will inevitably create a large number of landless peasants. At the same time, the market order needs to be rationalized, the main status of private enterprises is not realized, and a large number of state-owned enterprises have monopolistic behaviors. Therefore, the next step is to break through the traditional system. "Reform is the adjustment of interests. It is difficult to break the current pattern of interests. The key is to rely on the masses." Liu Wei said.

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