Why are the three European countries called shale gas mining?

Bulgaria, Romania, and the Czech Republic have chosen to question shale gas, which is somewhat doubtful to the industry.

This year, these countries decided to ban the hydraulic fracturing law for various reasons. In January, Bulgaria declared a halt to the hydraulic fracturing law; in the following months, the new Romanian government also declared an emergency stop; in August, the Czech government said that it had completed preparations for the suspension of shale gas mining.

These actions have caused many people to have doubts. Some people think that Central and South-East Europe have long relied heavily on Russian gas supply. This situation makes it difficult to meet the EU's climate targets. They should seize the great opportunity of shale gas mining and make a beautiful turnaround. Indeed, the three countries initially welcomed the development of shale gas and issued several exploration permits. However, due to insufficient public communication, complicated domestic political situation, and tough opponents, they forced them to reassess the so-called Positive attitude. From the current point of view, these three countries will not change this plan in the short term.

About a year ago, the prospects for shale gas mining in the three European countries were bright, especially in Bulgaria. Many international giants have obtained mining permits. Shale gas has therefore become the focus of local energy companies in the region. Many companies have expressed their enthusiasm for mining, but the implementation of mining has been slow, and there is no way to compare with the shale gas mining heat in Poland. Nearly 100 exploration licenses.

So, are the three countries mentioned above suddenly making a 180-degree turn on shale gas mining? At the time, the situation in different countries was very different. The fierce opposition from environmentalists and local communities has constrained the development of shale gas in Bulgaria. Among the opponents are some political groups and business people who have energy trade with Russia. The stoppage of shale gas in Romania is mainly the result of political struggle. Calling shale gas mining is more of a symbol of the new government plan. The Czech mining plan was also opposed by the local people. Due to the previous neglect of environmental considerations, it eventually became the cause of stopping shale gas mining.

Although the reasons for the three countries are not the same, we can find some commonalities. Local people’s doubts about shale gas mining continue to heat up, mainly because of the potential risks of shale gas development. In fact, these countries do not have a definitive estimate of their potential reserves. Therefore, there are various unforeseen problems in the potential benefits of developing shale gas and the resulting risks. In addition, there is a problem that the lack of a complete framework mechanism for shale gas development cannot be fully explained when problems are encountered in the exploration and mining process, so the escalation of the dispute cannot be avoided.

In addition, the government has also made mistakes in communicating with the public. The Romanian government once refused to disclose the exploration agreement with Chevron, even though Chevron suggested that it would be good to avoid rumors. The Bulgarian government has long claimed that the shale gas will bring great value and even achieve energy independence, but it ignores the public's concerns about the environment and the controversy. Since the Bulgarians have always been accustomed to the so-called corruption scandal, this shale gas is also taken for granted as an unfair transaction. There is not much difference in the situation in the Czech Republic, where many of the exploration mines open to energy companies overlap with nature reserves. Local people do not understand why the government approves mining activities that are so risky.

For this poor communication skill, it is not just the decision makers who blame, the shale gas mining companies have not made enough efforts to provide effective information to heal the negative emotions of the people. In addition, there are too few hearings for shale gas mining and there are few consultations. Therefore, the feeling of the foreign company to the local people is to come to the Nuggets, not for the long-term strategic purpose of the country. For example, Chevron has never set up an office in Bulgaria. Environmentalists are particularly dissatisfied with this, and demonstrations continue.

In addition, the political situation also plays an important role in deciding to suspend the hydraulic fracturing law. In these three countries, the shale gas dispute overlaps with various campaigns. Some political classes have seen public concerns about shale gas mining and used it as a tool to push for elections to defeat competitors. In Bulgaria, domestic Socialist candidates are the top topic of the campaign.

At the same time, there is a saying that the region’s opposition to shale gas sentiment is somewhat backed by Russian support. Indeed, Russia is closely watching the development of global shale gas because he does not want to incite its position as the main gas supplier in Europe. If the shale gas reserves in Bulgaria, Romania and the Czech Republic are sufficient, the dependence of these countries on Russia will be reduced. This is why companies in these countries that have energy trade with Russia want to join the army against shale gas mining. This opposition voice is more common in Bulgaria.

We cannot rule out that Russian and pro-Russian people are also opposed to shale gas mining. Gazprom is not the only stop. At the same time, the exploitation of shale gas will also bring resistance to local nuclear power construction and renewable energy development. All in all, the above-mentioned various kinds are only an analysis, mainly because the government lacks communication with the people.

So what will happen next? The governments of these countries have chosen to wait and see. They may not change their plans in the short term, because if they relax their policies now, they will face huge political risks. At present, the image of shale gas is very bad, and politicians need to take various measures to change people's impressions.

For these three countries, it will be more effective to promote some less controversial projects. For example, the three countries have expanded infrastructure for transit gas, while they are exploring the exploitation of conventional natural gas in the country and developing other forms of energy. Bulgaria and Romania have invited investors to explore energy sources near the Black Sea. In addition, all three countries have their own nuclear power development plans. In fact, the future development of nuclear power will become a major obstacle to the development of shale gas, because both of them are projects that burn money, and may face insufficient funds in the future.

However, one day, these three countries will face shale gas again. This trend is clear as Gazprom is also reassessing domestic unconventional gas reserves. In addition, Polish shale gas mining may be successful, which will affect the three countries.

We should note that these three countries have only suspended domestic shale gas mining and have no plans to promote shale gas mining throughout Europe. They also have hopes for this, hoping to enjoy cheap shale gas like the United States, and thus change the European natural gas market. Only now they are not willing to take risks and are not willing to bear the price.

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