Abstract This year's government work report proposes that we should focus on the production of difficult industries such as steel and coal, and insist on market forces, corporate entities, local organizations, and central support, using economic, legal, technological, environmental, quality, and safety measures. Strictly control new capacity, resolutely scouring...
This year's government work report proposes that we should focus on the production of difficult industries such as steel and coal, and insist on market forces, corporate entities, local organizations, and central support, using economic, legal, technological, environmental, quality, and safety measures. Control new capacity, resolutely eliminate backward production capacity, and orderly withdraw excess capacity.
The Melya Futures Research Report believes that the high-level has put forward very strict requirements on the supply-side reform, at least to complete the de-capacity. According to the target of recompressing crude steel capacity of 100 million tons to 150 million tons proposed by the State Council executive meeting on January 22, China's steel mills currently produce 300 tons of steel per capita. This round of steel de-capacity means that 500,000 steel workers will face Adjust or reselect.
“Continue to be optimistic about steel production capacity. One of the most important investment lines in the steel industry in 2016 is the policy to rapidly promote capacity and provide real gold and silver subsidies. The scale of the special award fund is calculated according to the details of the previously introduced collection plan. The total scale is about 47 billion yuan, but the policy also pointed out that the local government will support part of the funds, assuming a 1:1 package, the total amount is expected to be around 100 billion yuan, and the actual subsidy of 20 billion yuan in the steel industry is a conservative forecast." Yang Jin, an analyst at Guojin Securities, said.
At the same time, the relevant documents of the State Council stipulate that from 2016 onwards, with a period of three to five years, coal will withdraw from the production capacity of about 500 million tons and reduce the reorganization of about 500 million tons. It is predicted that coal demand will remain stable in the next few years. If the target can be achieved as scheduled, the supply and demand relationship will basically improve in the next three to five years.
Lu Ping, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, said that the goal of the supply-side reform is to achieve a basic balance between market supply and demand. At present, the coal industry still has a long way to go from the target. The possibility of closing a large number of coal mines in the future is more than expected. In the future, there will be a large number of supply-side reform policies, and the closure of a large number of mines will also be promoted. Quotes. Continue to be optimistic about the coal stock market in the supply-side reform year.
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