Impact of 26+2 air pollution control program on aluminum industry
The implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan (referred to as the Ten Airs) has been continuously improved for more than three years. However, due to the economic structure, the intensity of human activities per unit area and the intensity of pollution emissions, the improvement in winter is small. China's environmental protection work is still in the pre-loading stage, carrying deep public opinion and pressure to promote a harmonious society. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is a region with a large population and industrial density in China, and the task of joint prevention and control of regional air pollution is heavy. On March 23, 2017, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas 2017 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan†(hereinafter referred to as the 26+2 program). China's aluminum industry bears a wide range of economic, social and environmental responsibilities, and its impact. It is also far-reaching.
2017 is the last year of the implementation of the first phase of the atmosphere, and it is also the year of assessment. Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the surrounding areas are the most sensitive areas for domestic air pollution and have become the key areas for implementation. The 26+2 program is the introduction of this program. It can be said that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development concept is extended. From the perspective of air pollution prevention and control, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas are regarded as a whole, and the regional environmental capacity is the limiting factor. The respective resource advantages and location advantages will be used to plan the functional positioning, industrial structure and industrial layout of the cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the surrounding areas, and adjust the energy structure. Formulate the overall plan for air pollution prevention and control in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (also referred to as 26+2), assign their respective air pollution joint prevention and control tasks, and lead the organization or conduct the relevant supervision, inspection and evaluation by the Ministry of Environmental Protection. Wait.
Figure 1 Geographic coverage of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas
Air pollution control under the background of frequent haze
Since the winter of 2016, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas have been frequently exposed to smog and have been continuously concerned by the general public, the news media, and the media. In particular, new forms of WeChat friends and microblogs have been spreading, with the theme of smog. The section is also to increase the pressure on the government regulatory level. Especially when the smog can't be dispersed for a long time, and it will bring a lot of trouble to everyone's life and work, it will also make the achievements of government supervision unrecognized.
However, it has to be acknowledged that the extent of the improvement of the atmospheric environment in winter is indeed very small, not even much improved. The 2016 winter wind and high humidity frequencies are close to 60%. Such meteorological conditions are not conducive to the diffusion of pollutants on the one hand, and facilitate the formation of pm2.5 on the other hand. According to relevant authorities, pm2.5 is not only produced once, but a considerable part is due to warm winter, which is generated by chemical reaction, which increases the degree of pollution. The extreme weather of warm winter not only made China suffer from smog, but many other places in the world did not escape this curse. When extreme weather occurs, smog may reappear. However, the emergence of warm winter gas is also related to the significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions (mainly carbon compounds such as carbon dioxide). Therefore, carbon dioxide emission reduction is also an effective way to solve the problem.
The non-green lifestyle brought about by China's emphasis on industrial structure, energy structure and improved living standards has intensified the formation of smog. According to the data, the six provinces and cities around Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan, account for 7.2% of the country's territory, but consume 33% of the country's coal, and the emission intensity per unit area is national. The average level is about 4 times. The output of major products such as steel, coke and flat glass in 6 provinces and cities accounts for 30% to 40% of the national total. In addition, coal power accounts for 27%, crude oil processing accounts for 26%, and motor vehicle ownership accounts for 28%. The high concentration of high-pollution and high-energy-consuming industries, the concentrated discharge of coal and fuel, and the rapid growth of motor vehicles are the direct causes of air pollution in this area and the difficulty of improvement.
China has implemented a dozen atmospheres in the past few years and has achieved some practical results. In 2016, the concentration of pm2.5 in Beijing was 73g/m, which was 9.9% lower than that in 2015. The proportion of excellent days increased by 3.1% compared with 2015. This is the biggest improvement in Beijing in recent years. This shows that the direction of atmospheric management is correct and the measures are also applicable. However, compared with the general public's feelings about continuous smog, this reflects that air pollution control is both a tough battle and a protracted war. In the context of the new normal economic development, the government regulatory authorities will take multiple measures simultaneously, and joint actions will further strengthen air pollution prevention and control measures.
The impact of the program on the aluminum industry
The implementation areas mentioned in the plan mainly include Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Baoding, Langfang, Zhangzhou, Hengshui, Handan, Xingtai, Shandong, Jinan, Zibo, Liaocheng, Dezhou, Binzhou, Jining and Heze. Zhengzhou, Xinxiang, Hebi, Anyang, Jiaozuo, Fuyang, Kaifeng, Henan Province, Taiyuan, Yangquan, Changzhi, Jincheng, Shanxi, referred to as 2+26 cities. The impact of the program on the aluminum industry mainly comes from the following aspects.
First, the emission standards and limit requirements for aluminum industry pollutants will be enforced by the company's rigid requirements. The main objective of the program is to quantify the reduction of fine particulate matter, that is, in 2017, the average annual concentration of fine particulate matter (pm2.5) is about 60g/m in Beijing, and 60g/m in Tianjin, which is reached in Hebei Province. About 62g/m, Henan Province has reached 64g/m; Shandong Province has reached 59g/m; Shanxi Province has reached about 53g/m. For the regional aluminum industry, continue the "Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan", "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas to implement the Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan Implementation Rules" and "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Air Pollution Prevention and Control Measures (2016-2017)" The overall thinking, the “Aluminum Industry Pollutant Emission Standards†and the special emission limit requirements for air pollutants in key areas will be strictly implemented.
Secondly, in the picking season, aluminum-related enterprises actively limit production and compress industrial pollution sources. The plan mentioned the implementation of electrolytic aluminum peak production, that is, the heating season in 2017, the electrolytic aluminum plant limited production of more than 30%, based on the number of electrolytic cells stopped production; alumina enterprises limited production of about 30%, based on production lines; carbon enterprises do not To the special emission limit, all production stops, and when the special emission limit is reached, the production limit is 50% or more, based on the production line. As the people question the experience of the overall improvement of air pollution, especially in the case of warm winter weather, the fog is frequent, and the implementation of the peak heating production in the winter heating season for industrial enterprises has become an effective choice in special time periods.
In the 26+2 area, the heating season measures have a one-and-a-half-month impact on electrolytic aluminum in 2017; assuming the same measures are taken in the 2018 heating season, the real impact time limit is 20 months in 2018, and the current total annual production capacity in the 26+2 area is 11.41 million tons. Without considering future total capacity and operating capacity increments, the program will reduce production capacity by 430,000 tons in 2017 and 1.14 million tons in 2018 (see table below). According to Antaike research, China's electrolytic aluminum supply is 36 million tons in 2017, and the current operating capacity is 38 million tons. From the perspective of supply and demand structure, the 26+2 program has limited impact on the annual production supply.
Table 1 Actual impact of 26+2 area on electrolytic aluminum production capacity Unit: 10,000 tons
Source: Antaco Aladdin Hangzhou Jinjiang Group
According to the plan, in the 26+2 area, as in the calculation of electrolytic aluminum, the heating season plan will only compress 1.31 million tons of alumina capacity in 2017 and 3.02 million tons of capacity in 2018. According to Antaike research, China's alumina demand in 2017 is 71.1 million tons (including non-metallurgical demand), and the current operating capacity is 69.93 million tons. It is expected to import about 2.5 million tons per year. From the perspective of supply and demand structure, the 26+2 scheme will oxidize. The annual supply and demand of aluminum is in a state of balance.
Finally, in the event of extreme weather, the program may be applied outside the 26+2 region, which has a greater impact on the balance of supply and demand in the aluminum market. At present, more than half of the country's land area belongs to the winter heating area, and more than half of the electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises are in this range. If the winter smog is serious or the public's feeling is very poor, most northern heating district governments Under the pressure of public opinion, the regulatory authorities will fully adopt the relevant spirit of the 26+2 program to rectify air pollution. For example, on February 13, 2017, Henan Province issued the "Notice on Scientifically Compiling a City and One Policy Implementation Plan to Accurately Fight the Battle of Air Pollution Prevention and Control". The "Notice" includes 2+26 cities, plus Luoyang and Pingdingshan. Sanmenxia City, namely 2+26+3 cities. Under such circumstances, it will undoubtedly have a huge impact on electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises.
to sum up
With the country's increasing emphasis on environmental protection, such as the carbon emissions trading program will be launched during the year, further pushing up the cost of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry, the expectation of electrolytic aluminum prices is increasing. Based on the above analysis, we believe that the 26+2 program will be strongly implemented. It has limited impact on the balance of supply and demand in China's aluminum products market in 2017. The prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina have a stable operation. However, considering the frequent occurrence of winter haze The large and 26+2 program demonstrates the replication effect, which causes the imbalance between supply and demand of aluminum products in the short term, pushing up the price of aluminum products. (Hangzhou Jinjiang Group Guo Chunqiao Ma Dongcan)
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