Abstract According to data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday, in January 2015, China’s total import and export value was 2.09 trillion yuan, down 10.8% from the same period of last year. Among them, exports were 1.23 trillion yuan, down 3.2%; imports were 0.86 trillion yuan, down 19.7%;
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday, in January 2015, China’s total import and export value was 2.09 trillion yuan, down 10.8% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 1.23 trillion yuan, down 3.2%; imports were 0.86 trillion yuan, down 19.7%; trade surplus was 366.9 billion yuan, up 87.5%. Taking into account the influence of the Spring Festival, after the seasonal adjustment, the declines in imports, exports, imports and imports in January were 7.1%, 1.3% and 14.4% respectively.
The data also showed that China's foreign trade export leading index was 38.6 in January, down 1.5 from last December. This is the fourth consecutive month of decline, indicating that China's exports are still facing downward pressure in the first quarter and the second quarter of this year.
CICC's bond group analysts said that with the biggest decline after the international financial crisis, the recession-type trade surplus also set a new record of 60 billion US dollars; January foreign trade data was significantly lower than expected, reflecting the worse-than-expected domestic and foreign demand It indicates that the downward pressure on the economy this year is even heavier.
Import sharp decline shows insufficient domestic demand From the data point of view, foreign trade data in January was significantly lower than expected. The year-on-year growth rate of exports in January fell to -3.2% from 9.7% in December last year, lower than the market expectation of 5.2%; the year-on-year growth rate of imports fell to -19.9% ​​from -2.4% in December last year, lower than market expectations. -1.6%; merchandise trade surplus of 60 billion US dollars, higher than market expectations of 42.5 billion US dollars, a record high.
New Year's Eve 2014 is January 30th. This year's New Year's Eve is February 18. According to common sense, the import and export activity in January this year should be more than the same period last year. However, customs import data show that in January this year, the proportion of imports of aluminum, copper, refined oil and iron ore, which accounted for a large proportion, fell sharply by 49%, 37%, 22% and 9% respectively. It shows that the company's replenishment is insufficient.
Analysts of CICC believe that the import has fallen sharply for at least three reasons. First, weak domestic demand has led to a decline in import demand, such as a significant decline in real estate investment growth. Second, the decline in the bulk of commodity prices has affected Total imports, such as iron ore and crude oil, fell more than 40% year-on-year; in addition, trade finance was active last year, but after the banks tightened trade finance in the second half of last year, financing-driven imports shrank.
Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shenyin Wanguo [microblogging], said that it is reasonable to say that commodity prices have fallen sharply and imports should increase substantially. This is a favorable decision for the medium and long term. The sharp decline in imports indicates that domestic demand is too weak. Combined with the poor PMI data released in the previous period and the first RRR cut in three years, the economic pressure in the first quarter is large.
Depreciation of foreign currency reduces export competitiveness Guo Zejun's macro analyst Ren Zeping believes that this year's Spring Festival lag should have significantly increased the export growth rate in January, and the final seasonally adjusted export is still only -1.3%, compared with -10.5%, indicating that exports are very weak; the actual effective exchange rate may be too strong. Main cause.
Zhang Jun, a senior economist at the Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities Research Department, believes that export growth is lower than expected, confirming the need for the renminbi to depreciate to some extent. Major currencies other than the US dollar, such as the ruble, the yen, and the euro, have recently depreciated sharply, causing the yuan to appreciate significantly against a basket of effective exchange rates, adding to the already weak exporting industries that are already suffering from weak external demand and rising domestic labor costs.
The data shows that China's exports to the United States and ASEAN have increased, and exports to the EU and Japan have declined. The yen’s sharp depreciation effect is obvious. In January, China’s exports to Japan fell by 20.4% year-on-year, while Japan accounted for 6.7% of China’s total foreign trade. In another example, China’s exports to Russia fell by 42% year-on-year in January.
Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shenyin Wanguo, said that the sooner the interest rate cuts, the better, the one-year deposit rate can be reduced to about 2%.
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