In 2018, the import and export of China's stone trade of 9.1 billion US dollars decreased slightly from the previous year.

Guide

At the beginning of 2018, the Sino-US trade war began. In the middle of the year, the General Administration of Customs closed the customs statistics information network and no longer provided mailboxes and data services. At the end of the year, it was very difficult to get the Chinese stone import and export data. Fortunately, the Customs opened the media network. According to big statistics, China’s stone exports in 2006 were 6.52 billion US dollars, 29.25 million tons; imports were 2.669 billion US dollars, 14.6 million tons; compared with the previous year, there was a slight decline - China Stone Trade has seen a significant decline in the US market in the largest exporting countries, but the US market remains the largest market. Looking forward to 2019, China's stone trade is also actively making rational adjustments and upgrading of product industries.

Just as the author cited the international situation listed at the 18th Xiamen International Stone Fair last year, the factors affecting the import and export of Chinese stone in 2017 still exist, and in 2018, there is even more, especially the more spoiled. In the US market, the growth of China's stone exports is even more difficult. To sum up, these factors are still: the war in the Middle East has been going on for several years and there is a strong momentum; the timetable for the Ukrainian crisis in Eastern Europe is still unresolved; the shadow of the EU terrorist attacks and the tide of refugees is not scattered; the French “yellow vest” movement and The unions have been combined and politicized; Germany will continue to experience fiscal deficits due to the tide of refugees; the Brexit "tugby war" will have no result; NATO will expand eastward and squeeze Russia; Japan's economic growth will be weak; South Korea's economic growth will be difficult; The four countries in the BRICS countries have many problems... But the annual growth of China’s economic GDP has reached a satisfactory 6.6%, etc. The international factors closely related to China’s stone trade have profoundly affected China’s stone exports, which have made China's stone exports are still persistently depressed and uncertain.

On the import side, in addition to maintaining a large amount of imported raw materials before China, the order and type of importing countries have not changed much. In turn, the first place in the import of marble blocks is still Turkey, followed by Italy, Egypt and Portugal. Spain, Iran, France, Greece, etc.; the position of the largest country in the import of granite blocks is still firmly in the hands of India, and there is no regrettable. It is still a country with some exotic species such as Brazil and Pakistan. The difference is that in addition to Turkey and India, the two countries are stable in marble and granite. The other countries and numbers will have some order changes every year, but they are always in several countries. Change between.

2018 China Stone Import and Export Total Big Data

In the past 2018, due to several trades in the Sino-US trade war, and the world's big stone pattern has not changed. At the end of the year, the final feedback to China's stone industry trade results were: annual exports of 6.52 billion US dollars, 29.25 million tons; imports 2.669 billion US dollars, 14.6 million tons; total import and export amount of 9.189 billion US dollars, total weight of 43.85 million tons. The total data decreased by -4.35% and -10.66% compared with the previous year, showing a slight downward trend. It can also be argued that under the background of the great risks and uncertainties of 2018, it is not easy for China's stone trade to achieve such performance. Table 1 is a summary of China's stone imports and exports from 2000 to 2018. It is not difficult to see from Table 1. 2014-2015 is the highest peak value of China's stone trade value. After breaking through the $10 billion mark, it has been declining since 2016 and has been hovering above 9 billion by 2018. It has never broken through $10 billion. The trade volume of world stone has not decreased in recent years, and there has been a slight increase.

China's stone export data and country in 2018

From the export data, the annual export in 2018 was 6.52 billion US dollars and 29.25 million tons, down by -4.3% and -14.80% from the previous year of 6.814 billion US dollars and 34.43 million tons respectively. The total export value decreased by 294 million US dollars. The export weight was reduced by 5.08 million tons. Among them, the amount of artificial stone products exported to the US market has dropped by as much as 170 million US dollars, while the natural stone exported to the United States has also dropped by 120 million yuan. In total, the US stone market has decreased by 290 million US dollars. It is precisely the total amount of China’s exports of 290 million U.S. dollars in 2018, which means that the decline of China’s stone exports in 2018 is mainly in the U.S. market. The U.S. market has become the most important and direct driving factor for China’s exports in 2018. factor. Therefore, it is not difficult to see that the 2018 Sino-US trade war and artificial stone export anti-dumping did indeed affect the Chinese stone industry. In comparison, exports to other countries are relatively stable. Despite the decline in the US market, the top three countries in China's stone exports are still in the US, South Korea and Japan.

In 2018, China's largest export of natural stone (excluding synthetic synthetic stone) is still South Korea, with 1.233 billion US dollars ( 18.79% increase from 2017, 2.41 million tons and 1.038 billion US dollars in 2017); the second largest country is still the United States. , reached 696 million US dollars, an increase of 14% (also increased in 2017, 656,000 tons in 2017, 610 million US dollars); the third is still Japan, 433 million US dollars, a slight decrease of 3.56% (than 2017) A slight decline in the year, 546,000 tons in 2017, 449 million US dollars). Even so, these three countries still account for more than 40% of China's natural stone exports. The Chinese stone industry claims that the above three countries are the first phalanx of exports. If artificial stone is added, these three countries account for almost 48% of China's exports.

And exported to Vietnam, India, Germany, the United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Poland, France, Russia and so on. They are also between tens of millions and 2-3 billion dollars. The seats in these countries may sometimes go forward because of a large project, and the ordering between them does not explain what they are, but they all belong to the second square.

The export of artificial stone in China can be said to have sprung up in the past few years. Now it accounts for more than 10% of China's annual stone exports. In the future, this proportion may rise. The final ratio to natural stone is 4:1, that is, 80% is natural stone and 20% is artificial stone. But stone people know that artificial stone can never replace natural stone, but also exceed the international trade of natural stone. This is because natural stone has strong regional, unique variety, and scarcity of materials, and artificial stone does not have these unique characteristics. It can produce the same variety in different places and can be industrialized on a large scale. Medium and high-grade natural stone is still the darling of the world in international trade.

(1) The US market. If natural stone plus artificial stone is nearly $1.25 billion in 2018 ($540 million imported artificial stone and 698 million natural stones in 2018), the total value of US imports to China in 2018 has surpassed that of South Korea. However, due to the double obstacles that the United States launched a trade war against China and anti-dumping of artificial stone in 2018, the US imported stone fell a lot. In 2017, the US imported artificial stone was 710 million US dollars, and in 2018 it directly reduced 170 million US dollars. It is only $540 million; natural stone is also directly reduced by $120 million directly in 2017. If there is no US trade war and artificial stone anti-dumping in 2018, the US market is likely to reach a record $1.5 billion in 2018. It will also increase the proportion of artificial stone in China's annual stone exports to 15%. And this proportion is likely to increase year by year.

With the end of the Sino-US trade war, the US market will have a significant rebound in the value of natural stone and artificial stone imports. We can see from the 2018 artificial stone export data that China exported 980 million US dollars of artificial stone, and 539 million US dollars went to the United States, accounting for about 55%. Therefore, the United States is a country that advocates innovation and pursues new products. I hope that Chinese artificial stone enterprises will pay more attention to the US market and study the US market. Find a way to survive and develop beyond anti-dumping.

(2) Korean market. South Korea has always loved pure natural stone. In 2018, it imported 1.235 billion US dollars of natural stone, ranking it as the largest exporter of natural stone in China. However, Korean artificial stone was almost never imported from China in the past few years. Of course, South Korea itself also produces some artificial stone, and it is also very high-end, it is used in some furniture, vehicles, etc., not used for architectural decoration. But last year, South Korea also had some artificial stone imported from China, about $39 million, or 48,000 tons. But it is still very small compared to the United States. It should be said that the overall capacity of South Korea is not large, and there will not be much growth. Of course, there will not be much decline. The author believes that the "sustained maintenance" view is more in line with the current situation of Korean imports of Chinese stone. This is mainly because the trade of stone between Korea and China is in line with the characteristics of close geographical proximity, excellent price, full variety and excellent quality, which leads to the reason why South Korea should choose China for stone. Korean stone imports will not hesitate to purchase stone in China for a long time to come.

(3) Japanese market. Imported Chinese stone in 2018 was roughly the same as last year, with 449 million US dollars of natural stone. It is still a commonplace here. The Japanese market is somewhat similar to that of South Korea. It is because of the close geographical proximity, excellent price, full variety and excellent quality that Japan’s purchase of stone is also the first choice for China. Japanese imports of Chinese stone will not hesitate to purchase in China for a long time to come. Japan is also a country that advocates natural stone. However, in recent years, artificial stone has also been applied to public places, but the amount is small. Last year, China imported only 500 tons and 900,000 US dollars. Earlier, Japanese tombstones were imported from China in large numbers. With the change of the concept of young people in Japan, the Japanese economy continued to be low, and the tombstone products exported to Japan showed a downward trend year by year. Therefore, the Japanese market is not a high-growth market, it can only be a long-term stable market.

(4) The markets of Vietnam, India, Germany, UAE, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Poland, France, Russia, Taiwan, and Hong Kong range from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars. The seating of these countries may sometimes go forward because of a large project, and the ordering does not make much sense. But they all belong to the second phalanx of Chinese exports.

In addition, other countries we call third-party arrays. They are not the key countries we have developed, and the proportion of China's exports is very low, so I won't go into details here.

China's stone import data and countries in 2018

From the perspective of imports, China imported a total of 2.669 billion US dollars and 14.6 million tons in 2018, which was also -4.4% and -0.34% lower than the previous year's 2.792 billion US dollars and 14.65 million tons. The amount dropped by $123 million, while the weight dropped by 50,000 tons, which is a weak decline, but the average unit block import price has decreased. The total value of $123 million fell, mainly due to the most direct result of a drop of $185 million in imports from Turkey. In 2017, China’s imports from Turkey were 950 million U.S. dollars, down to 765 million U.S. dollars in 2018. The Turkish market directly reduced by 185 million U.S. dollars, about 600,000 tons. China’s imports of stone from Turkey are suffering from the aging of varieties and the fall of color. crisis. The import of granite from India is stable, reaching 6.77 billion US dollars in 2017, the peak of 4.38 million tons, and still maintaining the peak of 675 million US dollars and 4.36 million tons in 2018. Brazil added another $35 million to $163 million on the basis of the 128 million granite in 2017. China imported less stone in 2018, and some countries have fewer, and some countries have increased. This is less than the total value of 2018, which was reduced by $123 million. The weight has hardly changed.

(1) The first Turkish market for marble imports. In 2018, China imported 765 million US dollars and 3.9 million tons from Turkey, and imported 9.5 billion US dollars and 4.3 million tons from Turkey in 2017. It has dropped by 190 million U.S. dollars and 400,000 tons. China’s imports of stone from Turkey are experiencing a serious aging and dying crisis. This large-scale decline is mainly reflected in the varieties. In the past, China’s yellow series has been replaced by the growth of gray (including strips) and white series, so that the original yellow one is now dominated by beige and gray. The strip-like and white series of troikas have replaced the white and gray series in some other countries, thus occupying the growth space of Turkey's yellow series. Another major factor is that after the massive purchase of Turkish yellow series products in 2017, the release of stocks, the sale of old varieties, etc., also reduced the purchase of Turkey in 2018.

So what is the future trend of the Turkish market? The author comprehensively analyzes the opinions of experts and scholars in the industry, and is included in the following: Short-term Turkish marble is still the most important object of China's purchase, and the quantity and amount will be the largest. The first position of marble cannot be regretted. However, with the diversity of China's decoration fashion, single beige marble will not continue to rise and can only be maintained at a reasonable amount of consumption. Moreover, with the rational enhancement of Chinese buyers, the situation of the wind grabbing marble may not appear again in the future, and it is replaced by the sales in the international market and the order of sales. The Turkish sellers should also adapt to the changes in China's situation and provide China with higher quality, better service, more convenient transportation and other mutually beneficial trades in order to stabilize the Chinese market.

(2) Granite imports the first Indian market. India has occupied the position of the first export of granite to China for many years. At present, it has not been seen that the country can regret the export of Indian granite resources. In 2018, India exported 675 million US dollars to 4.36 million tons. China's purchase of granite in India is not a wind grab, but the Indian variety has deeply attracted Chinese consumers. For example, "black gold sand", "British brown", etc., are common varieties of public decoration and home decoration, and have been enduring for many years. India's colorful granites make up for the fact that China's gray-white granite is mostly, and the lack of bright varieties has caused a long-lasting trade surplus between India and China.

Indian granite will dominate China's scarce varieties for a long time, but it is unrealistic to grow at a high rate. Long-term maintenance of annual consumption of 600 million US dollars, 4 million tons is more objective.

(3) Other countries imported from marble - Italy, Egypt, Portugal, Spain, Iran, France, Greece and other countries. The marbles of these countries add up to the number of countries in Turkey. Therefore, the marble of these importing countries is mainly the demand for varieties.

(4) Other countries imported from granite - sandstones in Brazil, Finland, South Africa, Angola, Pakistan and Spain. The granites of these countries add up to the number of Indian countries. Therefore, the import of granite in these countries is mainly the demand for varieties. For related data, please refer to the 2018 import and export table, and will not repeat them.

Summarize China's stone import and export big data and analyze

Based on years of import and export data, the author tries to summarize these data to form a point of view, and welcome peer criticism:

(1) China will be committed to importing world stone blocks for a long time, at least 10 million tons and 4 million cubic meters per year. Although China's imported stone has been reduced, China's stone varieties are inherently insufficient, that is, there are many reserves and single varieties. Even if there are some good varieties, they are small and unstable. It is motivated that China can only be solved through imports – especially for medium and high-end varieties. At present, China needs to be converted into a standard 2 cm thick plate about 1.2-150 million m2 per year. Moreover, the imported marble is more than granite, and the ratio of the two types is 7..3.

(2) China's stone industry imports will still be dominated by blocks, which is determined by the structure of China's stone production – that is, strong processing capacity and a vast market for cheap labor. Its import destination has long been - the marble circle around the Mediterranean; the granite bay and the marble ring around the Arabian Gulf - the Bay of Bengal; the granite circle around the western Pacific; and some "points" (country) of sporadic varieties.

(3) Order of importing countries of marble blocks: Turkey (first position), Italy, Egypt, Greece, Iran, Spain, Portugal, France, etc., but never more than Turkey; and importing Indian granite Long-term position in the first place, followed by Brazil, South Africa and other countries. Other countries don't want to think more than India.

(4) China should actively seize the initiative of the buyer's market and seek positive preferential and leading prices. Since China is now the world's largest importer of natural stone blocks, coupled with the low world economy, stone blocks are shifting from the seller's market to the home market. From the data of China's imported stone in 2018, it can be seen that the import value has decreased compared with 2017, and the weight has not changed, it can be said that the average unit price of imports is decreasing. China should make full use of this opportunity to fully negotiate the price and strive for more commercial interests for the Chinese stone industry.

(5) The rebound of the US stone import market is a matter of morning and evening and expected. With the upcoming signing of the Sino-US trade agreement, we see that the biggest obstacle to the US market is being lifted, and the US market will have a normal rebound. At the same time, we must also clearly see that through the 2018 Sino-US international trade dispute, we must also develop high-quality, high-quality in international trade, and we must profoundly, consciously and consciously reduce and increase value to high-end products. development of. On the premise that imports still maintain priority, the company will go abroad and set up factories abroad to transport finished products to domestic and foreign markets, or to carry out more extensive international cooperation - to buy the world's world-selling stone in the name of China.

(6) The world's stone processing centers have signs of shifting to a cheaper labor market and a more relaxed country. For example, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc. It is said that Indian diamond tools have grown exponentially in 2018 compared to previous years. As we all know, diamond tools are an important tool for stone production. Two important consumption indicators: diamond and tool matrix can basically reflect the status of stone production. India has seized the opportunity of high diamond production and low price in the world, and the stone industry has developed rapidly. It is reported that India's stone exports in 2018 may have exceeded $3 billion. The well-known neighboring country of Vietnam is in the best period of demographic dividend, that is, the per capita wage is 1000-1500 RMB per labor force. And the advantages of coastal openness, the stone industry is also developing rapidly. According to statistics, in 2018, Vietnam only exported more than 100 billion US dollars to the United States, which is also a very high value compared with China's 1.4 billion population. Therefore, in the future, China's stone export advantages are being lost, and industrial upgrading and product upgrading will be carried out; the transfer of bases and transfer methods will be extremely urgent and cannot be taken lightly. Some sensitive companies are already considering, such as companies that mainly process imported stone, and companies that export stone-based are considering repositioning problems.

(7) The concentrated effect of Chinese stone bases or industrial parks is more obvious. After the construction of the stone industry park and the upgrading of the stone market, the concentration of China's stone bases or industrial parks is more obvious, and the functions and benefits reflected will be concentrated. The regions and enterprises that have been eliminated in the current round of industrial upgrading will gradually withdraw from the stone industry.

(8) China's new round of environmental protection storm will continue to affect the production and layout of Chinese stone enterprises. Environmental pressure has forced China's stone production costs and export costs to increase substantially, and blocks, finished products, and even sandstones have risen significantly. The rising cost of the stone industry began to emerge downstream.

(9) The rapid development of China's synthetic stone industry will affect the export of some natural stone products to a certain extent; the natural stone scrap used in artificial stone production in mines and factories will increase significantly.

(10) The number and scale of exhibitions and economic and trade activities with stone as the main product in Mainland China will be greatly reduced. In addition to the Xiamen International Stone Fair, the rest of the exhibitions are mainly based on local characteristics, and basically have lost the significance of international exhibitions. In the future, China only needs one large international exhibition every year, and the rest of the local stone exhibitions will focus on the development of local specialty industries, and will no longer play international trade brands.

references

China National Stone Import and Export Statistics, 1.2018, General Administration of Customs, 2019

2.2017 China Stone Import and Export Statistics, General Administration of Customs, 2018

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