According to the analysis and forecast of the economic operation trend of China's raw material industry in the second half of 2012 released by CCID's raw materials industry research, the development of raw material industry in the second half of 2012 will be slightly better than that in the first half of the year. The building materials, petrochemical and new materials industries will remain relatively relatively stable. With good development momentum, the development of the steel industry will be more difficult, and the non-ferrous industry will continue to differentiate, and the rectification of the rare earth industry will accelerate. Yuan Kaihong, deputy director of the Sadi Research Institute of Raw Materials Industry, analyzed that it is expected to accelerate the investment in fixed assets in the second half of the year, stimulated by the loosening of monetary policy, the approval of major infrastructure projects for people's livelihood, and the increase in structural tax reduction. China's economic growth rate will increase. In this context, the growth rate of the raw material industry will pick up, and the pace of “guarantee supply†and industrial restructuring based on “steady growth†will accelerate. In this regard, he suggested that China's raw material industry policy in the second half of the year should: implement a fiscal and taxation policy with safeguards and pressure, explore a new mechanism for profit formation, and establish a trade friction early warning monitoring mechanism.
Steel is still in a development dilemma With the commencement of construction of affordable housing projects, as well as the stabilization of the railway and real estate markets, the reopening of Zhanjiang and Fangchenggang projects, the demand for steel will be further expanded. On the railway side, the government has recently stated that it wants to protect railway construction. It is estimated to invest 500 billion yuan in railway construction throughout the year, of which 400 billion yuan will be used for capital construction, which will increase demand for steel such as railroad tracks. With the delivery of new lines such as high-speed rail lines in 2012, the demand for rolling stock will continue to grow. At the same time, although the demand for construction machinery has shown a downward trend in the near future, the gradual recovery of railway infrastructure construction projects will slow down the decline in demand to some extent. It is expected that the expansion of steel production capacity will accelerate in the second half of the year, and the initial estimate of capacity utilization will fall below 80%. Coupled with the continued weakening of the economic situation, it is difficult for the overall consumption to rise sharply. The pattern of oversupply of steel will be difficult to effectively improve in the short term. It is urgent to require the market to play a fundamental role in allocating resources and further promote the transformation and upgrading of the steel industry.
Petrochemical profits will increase the price of low-cost raw materials such as US shale gas and Middle East LPG, which will have a certain impact on the world petrochemical industry. Coupled with the risk of a downturn in the domestic economic situation, the demand for basic chemical raw materials will be weakened. On the other hand, the gradual lowering of world crude oil prices has alleviated the high cost pressure of the petrochemical industry to some extent. The state attaches great importance to agriculture, which will increase the demand for agrochemical products such as fertilizers and pesticides. Steady growth will also drive demand for other chemical products. Based on various factors, it is expected that the profit of the petrochemical industry will show positive growth in the second half of the year.
The trend of non-ferrous continuation of differentiation has led to a decline in the cost of raw materials, fuels, labor prices and other products and the weakening of demand for some products. The economic benefits of steel, nonferrous metals and other industries have declined. From January to April, the profit of the non-ferrous metal industry decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, among which the profit of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 20.1%. It is expected that in the second half of the year, due to the slow growth of the domestic and international economy, the fundamentals of the non-ferrous metals industry will further slow down, and the trend of basic metals is still facing certain downward pressure. The demand for global copper may show signs of recovery; due to factors such as the low economic growth rate in the United States and the continued downturn in the European economy, the aluminum market will continue to be weak and the degree may be deepened; due to oversupply, lead in the short term Prices are hard to pick up effectively, but the growth of international demand and the recovery of lead-acid battery production in China will increase the demand for refined lead; global refined zinc has been oversupply for six consecutive years and will continue to maintain this trend in the second half of the year. For rare small metal fields with technical advantages, high barriers to entry, and significant downstream breakthroughs, such as tungsten, prices are on the rise, and thanks to the development of high-end equipment manufacturing, superhard, high-temperature materials, etc., demand for tungsten will Further improvement.
Building materials maintain growth momentum The development of cement and glass industry in the first half of the year is relatively difficult. However, with the continuous advancement of urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization, the growth of industrial fixed asset investment and the gradual relaxation of monetary policy, infrastructure and real estate investment will increase. Speed, the security housing will start construction in succession, and the real estate market will see a phased improvement in the second half of the year. According to statistics, due to the slowdown in the real economy growth in the first half of 2012 and the sluggish monetary policy and the sluggish real estate industry, most of the raw material output continued to increase from January to May, while production growth in some industries showed signs of slowing down. The output of ten non-ferrous metals in the country increased by 5.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 3.7 percentage points year-on-year; cement production increased by 5% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed by 14.3 percentage points year-on-year; the growth rate of pig iron, crude steel and steel production slowed down by 4.7, 6.3 and 6 percentage points. However, benefiting from the recovery of the real estate market, it is expected that the supply and demand of the building materials industry will expand in the second half of the year, and continue to maintain a stable and rapid growth in production and sales. The growth rate of cement demand is expected to be between 8% and 12%, and the growth rate of new capacity will reach 16%. The problem of overcapacity will be further aggravated; the formation of glass producers' production and insured alliance will improve the supply and demand of glass and develop flat glass. Provides a period of development opportunities, but the pressure on glass overcapacity is still large.
The rare earths will develop steadily. In the first half of the year, steel, rare earth and other industries have encountered many trade litigation and relief investigations. Among them, the WTO has determined that China has imposed restrictions on nine kinds of raw materials. The United States, Europe and Japan filed lawsuits on export management measures for rare earths, tungsten and molybdenum. However, with the release of the White Paper on China's Rare Earth Conditions and Policies, the relevant policies for the management of rare earth industry in the second half of the year will be further clarified. At the same time, with the promotion of environmental pollution control remediation and integration, the implementation of rare earth special invoices, the development environment of the rare earth industry will be continuously optimized in the second half of the year, and the industry will further standardize development. It is expected that the formation of large-scale rare earth industry groups in the second half of the year will increase industrial concentration, regulate the supply capacity of the industry in an orderly manner, and promote the stable development of the industry; the establishment of rare earth trading platforms and R&D platforms will improve the R&D level of China's rare earth industry and promote rare earths. Downstream deep processing and application industry development.
The development of new materials will accelerate the implementation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for strategic emerging industries and new materials, and China's new materials industry will usher in a golden period of development. In the second half of the year, the new materials industry will vigorously develop new functional materials, advanced structural materials and composite materials, guide the structural adjustment and transformation of materials industry; carry out research on common basic materials, promote the industrial application of research results; establish new material identification and statistical systems, Standardize the development of new materials industry. With the implementation of the new materials of the Ministry of Finance, the policies on new materials will be gradually implemented, and all localities will vigorously promote the development of local new materials industries. In addition, the establishment of some new materials industry alliances will accelerate the combination of production, education and research, and improve the technological level and competitiveness of the industry. Based on various factors, it is expected that the development of new materials industry will accelerate.
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