July CPI or fell below 2%, interest rate reduction window reopened
The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released next week. Analysts expect that due to the further decline in the impact of hikes and the relatively stable food prices, the July CPI growth rate may fall within 2%, initially estimated at around 1.7%, which will hit a new low in 30 months. With the further downside expectations of CPI, due to the need for steady growth, the future monetary policy may continue to lean toward moderate easing, and the window of interest rate cuts and RRR cuts will be further opened in the third quarter. According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Commerce, in the first three weeks of July, the price of edible agricultural products rose slightly in two weeks, and fell slightly during the week. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that the food price in July may be basically the same, and the CPI hike factor in July fell sharply by 0.47 percentage points from the previous month. It is estimated that the July CPI year-on-year increase may be around 1.7%. After falling below 3% last month, it continued to go down and fell below 2%. As the CPI hikes in the third quarter will continue to fall, if there is no new price increase, it is expected that the CPI growth in the third quarter will remain at a low level of around 2%.       First Venture Securities expects CPI to rise 1.6% year-on-year in July, compared with -0.1%. Xiangcai Securities expects July CPI to increase by about 1.6% year-on-year, -0.1% from the previous month; CPI will increase by about 2% in the second half, of which the third quarter is about 1.7%. CSC Securities said that the price of the trend under the monetary policy operating space provides support. It is expected that interest rates will be cut again in the third quarter. In addition, in late July, fiscal deposits will increase substantially seasonally, accompanied by a sharp decline in the trend of foreign exchange holdings. Under the restriction of liquidity, the third-quarter RRR window will open. Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that the economy is now stabilizing and recovering. However, due to the small amount of stimulation, it is easy to show the state of “slowness of weakness†in the early stage of recovery. With the accumulation of stimulus policies, the recovery is expected to continue, but the overall recovery will be milder. The CPI is expected to be 1.7% in July. In August, the central bank will cut the RRR by 0.5 percentage points, but the interest rate cut is unlikely. The central bank has cut interest rates twice in June and July. Some people believe that the recent interest rate cuts have been more intensive, and it is expected that the pace will slow down in the future, and the RRR cuts will be more frequent. However, some experts believe that prices have fallen to a 30-month low, emerging economies have cut interest rates, and the European Central Bank announced interest rate cuts in July. For the sake of stabilizing economic growth and safeguarding the needs of the real economy, the central bank will not announce the third rate cut in the year. .
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