I. Aluminium City Weekly
opening
Higher
Lower
Closing
Position (increase or decrease)
in stock
LME March
1929
1984
1907.5
1952.5
420505 (508)
497075 (-6100)
Al0511
17160
17200
17030
17110
6294 (-768)
41251 (-783)
Al0512
17140
17210
17030
17140
8532 (-774)
Al0601
17180
17260
17020
17140
15002 (-2360)
Al0602
17280
17280
17040
17160
8182 ()
Second, a week of spot dynamics
Unit: Yuan/ton
Yangtze
Huatong
South China Sea
Lower
Higher
Lower
Higher
Lower
Higher
October 24
17220
17260
17220
17240
17160
17260
October 25
17210
17250
17220
17230
17140
17220
October 26
17210
17250
17210
17230
17130
17230
October 27
17130
17170
17100
17130
17040
17120
October 28
17100
17140
17070
17100
16980
17060
One-week spot review: Domestic aluminum spot prices entered a period of continuous adjustment after continuing highs at the beginning of the week. The overall decline was due to the lack of consumer buying. Short-term spot prices will likely continue the downturn and maintain a relative range of oscillatory consolidation. The spot market still recommends how much to buy.
Third, information summary??
Indian NALCO sells 270,000 tons of alumina to a national company
CR Pradhan, chairman of India's State-owned Aluminum Corporation (NALCO), said on Friday that the company has sold 270,000 tons of alumina to an international trading company and will begin sales in January next year.
CR Pradhan said: "We have already signed an export contract with an international trading company. The price is 22.75% of the LME price. The LME price will be based on the average price of three months during the transportation period."
The tender ended on October 17 and there were a total of 19 national companies.
This is the first batch of alumina export tenders for the 2006 schedule. The company plans to export 750,000 tons of alumina in the tender ended in March 2007.
Brazil's CVRD company tendered to sell 25,000 tons of Australian alumina
European and U.S. trade industry sources said on Friday that Brazil’s Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) has already tendered for the sale of 25,000 tonnes of alumina from Australian origin.
A wholesaler said: "They are bidding to sell 25,000 tons of alumina on schedule from December 1 to December 10."
Traders said that the tender deadline is November 3, and the bid will remain valid until November 4.
German Voerde Aluminium Plant Achieves New Electricity Supply Agreement to Close
Gerhard Buddenbaum, an official at the British-Dutch Metals company Corus, said on Wednesday that the company's Voerde aluminum plant in Germany has reached a new electricity supply agreement to avoid the plant's fate.
Gerhard Buddenbaum stated that the higher electricity costs in Germany have left the plant uncertain.
However, he said that the company has reached a new supply agreement with German E.ON AG power company.
He said: "This avoids the fate of the plant."
Western stocks fell to 3.228 million tons at the end of September
According to preliminary data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) on Wednesday, the stocks of aluminum in various forms held by Western producers at the end of September 2005 (excluding finished finished products) fell to 3.228 million tons at the end of August 2005, and 339 at the end of August 2005. Ten thousand tons, in September 2004, 2.99 million tons.
In September, raw aluminum stocks fell to 1.774 million tons. In August 2005 and September last year, they were 1.912 million tons and 1.658 million tons respectively.
Imported alumina high operating electrolytic aluminum production calls for high
Since 2005, the electrolytic aluminum industry has suffered a loss of more than 80% of the industry-wide losses. Surprisingly, most electrolytic aluminum companies do not stop production after biting hard and even have a tendency to rebound in investment. The main support for these companies to "lose losses" is a market judgement that has been quite popular in the industry in recent years: The price of alumina will decline substantially by the end of the year. However, some experts have warned that if electrolytic aluminum companies continue to use this judgment to “make up losses,†it is likely that the entire industry will be hit hard.
Loss is a foregone conclusion
Many industry experts analyze that the sharp drop in alumina prices during the year may be minimal. This round of alumina prices has been operating at a high level for 33 months since its launch in November 2002. Although last year's macro-control and the end of June this year, due to policy prices have experienced two major declines, but the current import alumina port prices back to a high of 5,000 yuan or more, the domestic price has also been maintained at 4,300 yuan. At the time when the entire industry was in such a difficult time, there was a new trend in production capacity. Experts analyzed that the loss of domestic electrolytic aluminum industry this year is a foregone conclusion. It is estimated that the number of electrolytic aluminum producers in the country will decrease from more than 140 at the time of the peak to more than 90, and the number of profitable enterprises will not exceed 15%.
Dealing with "death and death"
In light of where the company is going, some experts suggest that “cutting production†and stopping the production of new production capacity should be the consensus of electrolytic aluminum companies. First of all, the originally anticipated market turnaround will inevitably be delayed in the current monopolistic market pattern of alumina supply, together with the partial recovery of capacity. In this way, the original company's calculation of the "lost profit" has become a "loss;" Second, "the electrolytic aluminum company can not stop production once it starts," the concept should also be able to get rid of. Some companies and industry experts also believe that, at present, electrolytic aluminum companies can not stay in the "Prisoner's Dilemma", waiting for other companies can not sustain the first stop production, this result will make everyone have to lose longer. Every company should calculate an account according to its own situation: The loss caused by stopping production for a long time can be lower than the continuous loss. It is understood that some electrolytic aluminum companies have begun to brewing production cuts, and some have already cut production by first stopping electrolyzers that need to be overhauled.
National Development and Reform Commission approves three alumina projects
The National Development and Reform Commission approved three aluminum oxide projects, namely Chinalco Guangxi Branch, Guizhou Branch, and Shanxi Luneng, according to the requirements of the "Aluminum Industry Industry Development Policy" and "Special Plan for Aluminum Industry Development."
According to the Development and Reform Commission’s October 28 news, the National Development and Reform Commission approved China Aluminum Guangxi Branch, Guizhou Branch and Shanxi Luneng Jinbei three aluminum oxides in accordance with the requirements of the Aluminum Industry Industry Development Policy and the Aluminum Industry Development Special Plan. project.
China Aluminum Guangxi Branch's alumina phase III project will have an annual production capacity of 850,000 tons of alumina. The construction contents mainly include two 425,000-ton/year Bayer process production lines, supporting the construction of a bauxite mine with a capacity of 1.98 million tons/year, an installed capacity of 54MW thermal power units (2×25MW, 1×4MW) and others. Auxiliary production system.
The total investment of the project is 386.11 million yuan, and the capital of the project is 115.953 million yuan, accounting for 30% of the total investment. It is resolved by Chinalco's own funds. The remaining 270.55 million yuan was applied for loan settlement.
The aluminum oxide tapping and expansion and environmental treatment project of Chinalco Guizhou Branch mainly involves the modification and expansion of the existing alumina process flow and production system. The reconstructed technical solution centered on the Bayer process, reconstructing the existing dissolution system and supporting facilities, adding two heating and pressure cookers, eliminating old red mud settlement tanks, and establishing a new set of efficient sedimentation tanks, reconstructing old decomposing tanks, and building a large group of new machines Stirring and decomposing tanks increased the Bayer process capacity from 620,000 tons to 850,000 tons. Around the sintering process, two new Φ4.5×90m firing kilns were built to increase the clinker burning capacity and transform the other supporting systems so that the sintering process capacity increased from 180,000 tons to 350,000 tons. Supporting the construction of 5 joint venture mines to increase the supply capacity of 700,000 tons/year. Elimination of the existing eight pulverized coal boilers, construction of four 130 t/h medium-temperature circulating fluidized bed boilers and electrostatic precipitators, and the use of existing steam turbines, generating units for steam supply and power generation, without additional steam supply and power generation capabilities.
The total investment of the project is 1986 million yuan, and the project capital is 770.29 million yuan, accounting for 38.8% of the total investment of the project, which will be solved by Chinalco's own funds. 121.571 million yuan other than capital were applied for bank loans.
Shanxi Luneng Jinbei Aluminum Co., Ltd. has an annual production capacity of 1 million tons of alumina. The Bayer process and the red mud sintering process (also known as the tandem process) are adopted. The construction scale is to produce 1 million tons of alumina per year. The construction content is mainly Including the Bayer Process System, the red mud sinter system, auxiliary facilities including 75,000 kilowatts of self-provided thermal power stations, and supporting the construction of an annual output of 1.5 million tons of bauxite (of which 1 million tons will be self-built and 500,000 tons will be jointly established) 800,000 tons of lime ore mining facilities.
The total investment of the project is 573.897 million yuan, and the project capital is 172.169 million yuan, accounting for 30% of the total investment of the project, which will be solved by Jinbei Aluminum's own funds. 400.728 million yuan of capital other than the application for bank loans to solve.
After the completion of the three projects, a total of 2.25 million tons of alumina was newly added. The aluminum oxide production capacity of Chinalco Guangxi Branch and Guizhou Branch will reach 1.7 million tons and 1.2 million tons, respectively, and the scale advantage will further show. The design capacity of 1 million tons of alumina in Jinneng, Shanxi Province of Luneng will also reach the economic scale; In the past, Guangxi Branch and Guizhou Branch all tapped and expanded on the original basis, and the technology was mature. The Jinbei Project adopted a series process with low energy consumption; the localization rate of the three projects was all around 80%. Only a small amount of key equipment that can't be manufactured in China can be imported at the moment; the project design fully embodies the concept of circular economy, and has clear requirements for new water consumption, water recycling, comprehensive utilization of red mud and slag, and comprehensive utilization of associated iron ore.
The implementation of the three projects is of great significance for accelerating the structural adjustment of China's aluminum industry, rationally utilizing domestic bauxite resources, alleviating the contradiction between supply of alumina, and promoting economic development in the central and western regions.
China Aluminum's Third Quarter Alumina Production Increases 12% to 1.81 Million Tons
October 24th, the world’s second largest alumina producer, China Aluminum Corporation, stated that alumina production increased by 12% year-on-year to 1.18 million tons in the third quarter of this year. The company also expects annual alumina production to exceed 7.5 million tons. In the third quarter, the company’s average alumina sales price was RMB 3,745 per ton, up 3.6% from the same period last year.
The company stated that it is expected that China Aluminum's alumina production will exceed 7.5 million tons this year, and domestic consumption will be above 15 million tons. The gap is still large. It is believed that the tight supply of alumina will continue for a long period of time. In the fourth quarter of this year, alumina prices will continue to operate at higher levels.
Earlier this month, China Aluminum announced that it had raised alumina prices by 7.6% to RMB 4,660 per ton.
In the third quarter, the Company’s alumina sales were 1.33 million tons, up 9.4% from the previous year. The sales of primary aluminum were 273,000 tons, an increase of 55.1% over the same period of last year. The average selling price of primary aluminum was RMB 16,600 per ton, up 5% from the same period of last year.
Chinalco also stated that "China's primary aluminum market is affected by high costs and prosperous consumption. It is expected that the domestic primary aluminum market will perform well in the fourth quarter of this year. This year, the primary aluminum consumption will be about 6.8 million tons. The domestic aluminum price is expected to be in the fourth quarter. It will range between RMB1.65-1.75 million per ton.
Fourth, a week trend review
The lack of buying makes the Shanghai aluminum price range
This week, LME's aluminum oscillation rebounded, while Shanghai aluminum prices fell simultaneously.
Aluminium prices did not continue the downward trend of the previous week this week. The price has basically stabilized in the short term and has been driven by a small amount of buying. The total position has also been restored at this stage with an increase of 5,000 lots, which is also a price. Short-term support. Inventories still show the active participation of funds at this stage, and inventory has decreased slightly this week, approaching 6,000 tons. All of these have become the short-term growth momentum of Lumium. However, such a rate still cannot constitute a substantial increase in price support, and the fact that the spot is still at a premium indicates that its current stage of supply is still sufficient. The lack of fundamental news in the market made the volume clear. Three-month aluminum closed at 1,954 US dollars / ton, up 33.5 US dollars / ton over the same period last week.
Shanghai aluminum prices fell this week against the trend of aluminum. The domestic aluminum price has been driven by the lack of follow-up consumer buying due to the rapid price increase in the previous period, and the speculative buying on the market is also taking the initiative to close out positions. This constitutes a fall in the short-term price and lack of buying. This week's other fundamentals are well maintained and the stability of Alluminium has limited the space for Shanghai Aluminum to fall. Therefore, the price is still maintained at more than 17,000 yuan/ton. The total amount of positions held this week is still the reduction caused by the bulls' initiative to lighten up, and the total positions are about 40,000 hands. The relative calm in the consumer market has been maintained. We have not seen the phenomenon of active purchases. Compared with the zero-inventory copper consumer companies, aluminum consumer companies still have some stocks. This has also led to short-term price increases after aluminum consumers can wait and see trading psychology. It directly brings down the price. After all, supply is increasing dynamically. In turn, this pressure was also reflected on the disk. The main contract al0601 was only higher at 17,260 yuan/ton, and closed at 17,140 yuan. It was down 10 yuan/ton from the same period last week.
In terms of international fundamentals, we saw that IAI's statistics have sharply reduced its inventory in September. In the end of September, various types of aluminum inventories held by western producers (excluding finished finished products) fell to 3.228 million tons by the end of August 2005. At 3.39 million tons, raw aluminum inventory fell to 1.774 million tons in September, and 1.912 million tons in August. This further validates that consumption in the second half of the year is significantly better than the first half of the year, and has also led to an earlier increase in the price of aluminum. The short-term aluminum market is still in a dynamic equilibrium, and the current peak season for consumption also makes us have some expectation of its short-term supply gap. It also brought high expectations for prices. The economic data also continued to maintain its ideals at the current stage. The strong recovery of purchasing managers data in September brought good expectations for the October data. This in turn promotes the growth of aluminum consumption. The overall short-term fundamentals have certain support for LME aluminum prices. However, it is necessary to be cautious when it comes to food stores. After all, the current price funds are more cautious in entering the market. After the lack of active participation of funds, the prices will obviously be under pressure at this stage. Therefore, in the short term, we must pay close attention to changes in LME aluminum positions, which will give us some support for directional judgment.
On the domestic front, supply continues to be affected by the expected reduction in production, and there is a possibility of reduction. Statistical data released by the Bureau of Statistics in September actually decreased from the original 760,000 tons to 632,000 tons, but this data and the association’s data have some The difference is that the association's data shows that it was around 680,000 tons in August and September. But no matter which data, the overall annual production data is basically the same. This also shows that the short-term reduction in output is limited. Demand is still relatively strong during the current peak season, which is favorable to short-term prices. However, the cost factors for the early promotion of prices have already been digested at this stage, and the short-term increase in alumina prices has also begun to falter. The alumina centralized procurement alliance that is currently being set up in China is also not conducive to future alumina prices. This will be the pressure on future prices. At the current stage, the aluminum production reduction plan and alumina purchase reduction are in progress simultaneously. The impact on prices is contradictory, but the fall in alumina prices will directly affect the price fluctuations in the short term. The short-term consumption season will continue to support prices. The overall, that is, the current fundamentals will keep prices relatively stable.
Looking at the technical trend, the short-term price of Lon Aluminum is still above the support of the average line, and its original upward trend has not damaged our expectation that prices will still rise. However, investors have remained cautious after the previous highs did not hit this week's continuous rise. The technical analysis predicts that the price will face the pressure of previous highs and the support of the moving average and maintain the range oscillation. The continuous weakness of Shanghai Aluminum's price made the technical pattern completely go bad. Instead, it has come down under the pressure of short-term moving averages.
In summary, the peak season of fundamentals will continue to support the current Shanghai aluminum and aluminum prices, and the different technical forms will allow them to trade within a relatively flat range. There will not be too much direction in the short term. Concerned about the LME aluminum position changes brought about by price analysis guidance. It is expected that Lumium will face pressure oscillations in the late stage and even have some room to fall. Shanghai aluminum prices will also have weaker expectations.
Mid-term research on Lin Shuhui