In the first half of 2008, China's machine tool industry continued to grow rapidly, and the growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year. Especially at the end of the year, the first monthly increase was single digit. Recently, China Industry News reporter learned from China Machine Tool Industry Association, 2008 China's machine tool industry's production, sales and profits continued its growth momentum for eight years, and continued to maintain its growth momentum. However, both domestic sales and exports showed a situation of first rise and then decline. - The first half of the year basically maintained steady growth, and the growth rate slowed down significantly in the second half. The decline in the fourth quarter was particularly evident. In addition, statistics show that China has become the world's largest consumer of machine tools, the largest importer and the third largest producer. Take metal processing machine tools as an example. In 2008, imports were 7.59 billion US dollars; exports were 2.11 billion US dollars; consumption was 19.44 billion US dollars; domestic market share continued to increase, reaching 61%. In the 2008 World Machine Tool Comprehensive Ranking, China ranked sixth, up two places from 2007.
Production and sales growth slowed down significantly
In the first half of 2008, China's machine tool industry continued to maintain a relatively fast growth trend, laying the foundation for stable growth throughout the year. The growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year, especially at the end of the year, when the single-month increase was single digit. The monthly output of metal cutting machine tools continued to grow negatively from July, and the annual product sales rate was lower than the previous year. It can be seen that the impact of the financial crisis on China's machine tool industry is becoming more and more obvious.
According to the data of machine tool industry published by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2008, 4,832 enterprises completed a total industrial output value of 347.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, an increase of 8 percentage points lower than that of 2007; the sales value of machine tool industry products was 334.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year. The growth rate was 26%, which was 10.2 percentage points lower than the same period in 2007.
The data in 2008 shows that the industry still has rapid growth, but it is worth noting that both the monthly data of the whole industry and the research of some key enterprises of the association show that the speed of the financial crisis has affected the machine tool industry. The faster and the deeper the level. The industry's total industrial output in the first quarter increased by 36.6% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter has been greatly reduced. In December, the total industrial output value of the whole industry was 32.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 7.9%; the sales value was 30.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 2.3%. The total industrial output value of the gold cutting machine tool industry in December was 8.66 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year; the sales value was 7.76 billion yuan, down 23.8% year-on-year. According to the survey of nearly 200 key enterprises, the total industrial output value of more than 40% of enterprises completed in 2008 is lower than the previous year.
In 2008, the sales rate of industrial products in the machine tool industry was 96.4%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. In addition to the sales of casting machinery and woodworking machinery in the two small industries increased by 1.1 and 0.1 percentage points, the other five small industries, including gold cutting machine tools, forming machine tools, machine tool accessories, measuring tools, abrasive tools and other metal processing machinery The sales rate has shown a downward trend. Among them, the sales rate of products in the small industry of Jinqie machine tools decreased by 2.6 percentage points. Many companies report that the lack of follow-up orders is the biggest problem they face.
According to the survey of key association enterprises by the association, due to the sluggish domestic and international market, the inventory of enterprises this year is 30% higher than the normal year, an increase of 18.7% over the same period of last year. Therefore, in the second half of the year, enterprises began to limit production or even stop production to ease inventory pressure, and the inventory volume decreased month by month.
Export growth rate fell sharply
In 2008, the import and export of machine tools in China showed a situation of increasing first and then decreasing. In the third and fourth quarters, both import and export growth rates declined.
In terms of exports, China's machine tool exports in 2008 reached 7.13 billion US dollars, an increase of 37.1%. The main products that drive China's rapid export growth are abrasives, cutting tools and machine tool parts. The total exports of these three types of products are 3.36 billion US dollars, accounting for 47.2% of the total exports of machine tools, and the export growth rate is 54%. Processing machine tools accounted for 29.5% of the total, and the export growth contribution rate was only 23.6%.
Affected by the global economic recession and the appreciation of the renminbi against various currencies, the export of metalworking machine tools declined for the fourth consecutive month from August, and only slightly increased in December. The export of metal processing machine tools for the year was 2.11 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.6% year-on-year, an increase of 11.7 percentage points lower than the same period of 2007. It is worth noting that the monthly export of metalworking machine tools in the first 10 months (except February) has steadily maintained a double-digit high-speed growth. The year-on-year growth rate suddenly dropped to 0 in November, and only 3.5% in December. growth of. The decline in the export of metal cutting machine tools was the main factor in the slowdown in the growth rate of metal processing machine tools. In November and December, the monthly export value of gold cutting machine tools increased negatively for two consecutive months. Obviously, the impact of the financial crisis on China's machine tool exports has been highlighted at the end of the year. The appreciation of the renminbi has also had a major adverse impact on the price competitiveness of products in the export market. Export enterprises will face a more severe situation in 2009.
However, with the further optimization of the export product structure of metal processing machine tools in China, the proportion of CNC machine tools has gradually increased, and the proportion of low-value machine tools has gradually decreased. In 2008, CNC machine tools accounted for 37.7% of metal cutting machine tool exports, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year. Low-value products such as bench drills, sawing machines, grinders and polishing machines exported 350 million US dollars, accounting for 24.2% of Jinqie machine tool exports, down 8.8 percentage points year-on-year.
In terms of imports, the total import of machine tools in 2008 was US$12.29 billion, up 4.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.3 percentage points lower than the previous year. Metal processing machine tools accounted for more than 60% of the total imports of machine tools, reaching 7.59 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.3%. The top three imported products were processing centers, grinding machines and special processing machines, which were 2.09 billion, 990 million and 740 million, respectively, up 20%, 7.4% and -0.9%.
At present, the state has increased the export tax rebate rate for some products in order to encourage exports, which will play a positive role in the export of enterprises. In the current foreign trade environment, the impact of the financial crisis is becoming more and more serious, and trade frictions and disputes will inevitably increase. Many countries and regions will restrict foreign trade enterprises through various barriers or trade principles in order to protect their own and local enterprises. Therefore, companies should continue to focus on improving the added value of products and optimizing product structure. At the same time, we must seize the opportunity to continue to explore emerging markets, thus ensuring the steady growth of machine tool exports.
Reduced profit growth
Relying on the high growth in the first half of the year, the machine tool industry achieved a profit of 17.67 billion yuan from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and the growth rate was 35 percentage points lower than the same period in 2007. In 2008, the year-on-year growth rate of industry profits showed a rapid decline. The profit from January to February increased by 73.7% year-on-year; from March to May, it increased by 40%; from June to August, it increased by 22.1%. From September to November, the profit turned negative to year-on-year. 4.3%. From an industry perspective, the profit of the two small industries of gold cutting and forming machine tools increased by only 6% and 9.4% year-on-year, and fell to 1 digit for the first time; only the profit of casting and abrasives was higher than the industry level. From the perspective of the nature of the enterprise, the total profit of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreign-controlled enterprises showed a negative growth year-on-year, -17.3% and -7.3% respectively.
According to a survey of nearly 200 key contact companies, most companies are still making profits, and nearly 17% of them have different degrees of losses. The total profit for the year was basically the same as that of 2007, but the profit for the month of December decreased by 54.8% year-on-year.
Market changes promote structural adjustment
At the beginning of 2008, the country implemented a tight monetary policy, the machine tool market structure has changed, and the general machine tool product market has shrunk. However, relying on the support of national key projects, the medium and high-end machine tool market is still hot. As the impact of the global financial crisis on China's economy continued to expand in the next few months, most of the products were affected, and both domestic and international markets fell sharply. In response to this market change, machine tool enterprises adjusted production in a timely manner, increased the production ratio of medium and high-end and special machine tools, and gradually optimized the product structure.
The data shows that in 2008, the growth rate of China's machine tool output declined rapidly while the sales value continued to grow, and the machine rate and output value of machine tools continued to increase. The total output of metal cutting machine tools in 2008 was 617,000 units, including 122,000 CNC machine tools. The output was reduced compared with 2007, down 2.4% and 3.3% year-on-year; the total output of forming machine tools was 145,000 units, down 9.8 year-on-year. %. The sales value of products in the gold cutting and forming machine industry increased by 14.0% and 25.2% respectively. According to the survey of key contact enterprises, the numerical control rate of output value of gold cutting machine tools and forming machine tools in 2008 was 48.6% and 49.4%, respectively, which increased by 3.7 and 4.1 percentage points.
It should be noted that the structural contradiction of the industry has not been completely solved, and the numerical control rate of output value needs to be improved. The proportion of medium and high-end CNC machine tools in CNC machine tools is still relatively low, and it can meet the needs of electric energy, railway locomotives, aerospace and automobile manufacturing. There is still much work to be done in the industrialization of high-speed, precision, multi-axis linkage, large-scale machine tools, and high-reliability and stability machine tools. Therefore, structural adjustments and product upgrades will become the main tasks of industry companies for a long time.
High-growth investment supports product structure adjustment
In recent years, investment in the machine tool industry has continued to grow rapidly, and this inertia continues. In 2008, the machine tool industry has completed fixed assets investment of 79.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%; new fixed assets of 43.86 billion yuan, an increase of 61.7%, much higher than the national average. At present, the machine tool industry enterprises should pay attention to the investment direction, not only to prevent low-level redundant construction, but also to prevent repeated investment in hot products. In response to the financial crisis, the Chinese government has implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy. The industry must use effective investment to develop its own superior products; identify market positioning, develop and expand its operational strength; And energy to gradually narrow the gap with imported products, to work hard on personalized products, high-end products and quality and service, enterprises can be sustainable.
In 2008, the machine tool industry maintained its growth data. It was not optimistic, mainly because the growth in the first half of the year laid the foundation. The growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year, and the decline in the fourth quarter increased, especially in exports. The last two months were almost zero growth. The rapid changes in the situation are worrying. Both domestic and foreign markets have been affected by the financial crisis. The difficulties of insufficient new orders, reduced sales profits and insufficient liquidity have become more serious at the end of the year.
In 2009, enterprises will face severe challenges. However, the development of the machine tool industry will be full of opportunities in the next two years. The country has accelerated the launch of several industry revitalization plans and key projects. The industry should pay special attention to industrial restructuring structures and industrial revitalization plans for automobiles, ships, steel, etc. These industries will directly or indirectly provide a broad market for the machine tool industry. It is now a good time for companies to conduct in-depth market research, optimize product structure, develop demand products, rectify product quality, and improve corporate management. In addition, electric power and clean energy, transportation, defense and military, aerospace, oil and gas exploration and transportation, construction machinery, agricultural machinery and other industries import a large number of machine tools every year. Enterprises should go deep into the user's site to understand their manufacturing processes and develop imports that meet the needs of users. Substitute products to gain their own development.
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