Long plate sheet differentiation

At present, the domestic steel market has entered an off-season seasonal demand, the cost support continues to strengthen, and the continuous recovery of the manufacturing industry will form a good support for the sheet metal market. However, the long products market is still in a weak adjustment due to seasonal factors. It is expected that the overall domestic steel market will rise slightly in the short term, and the long steel sheet market will be significantly different.

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price prediction model data, this week (2012.12.17-12.21) domestic steel market prices will rise slightly, the long products market will adjust steadily, while the plate market price will rise and fall. . The Lange Steel Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around 147.4. The average price of steel will be around 3,830 yuan, with an average volatility of about 20 yuan. Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 160.0, with a slight adjustment of around 0.3; Lange The steel price index is expected to fluctuate around 131.1 points, a slight increase of about 0.5 points.

From the Lange Steel Information Research Center market survey, it is expected that this week (2012.12.17-12.21) domestic long products market prices will be stable or small adjustments, while the plate market prices will rise and fall; raw material market prices will be steady and small Adjusted, iron ore, coke and scrap market prices will remain stable, billet market prices will decline slightly 10-20 yuan.

1. Domestic steel market fluctuates slightly this week. Week 50 of 2012 (12.10-12.14) Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 146.9 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.73%, and a decrease of 4.18% from the same period of last year. Among them, LGMI long products price index was 160.3 points, a week-on-week increase of 0.74%, a decrease of 17.83% compared with the same period last year; LGMI sheet price index was 130.6 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.71%, a decrease of 8.14% over the same period last year (see Figure 1) .

According to the price data of 17 categories of 44 standard varieties monitored by Lange Steel Information Research Center in some regions, the market price of major steel products fluctuates slightly in the 50th week of 2012 (12.10-12.14). With an increase, the flat variety has increased, and the falling variety has decreased significantly. Twenty-four varieties rose, up 9 from the previous week; 14 were flat, 5 more than last week; 6 varieties fell, down 14 from the previous week. The domestic steel raw material market price rose steadily or slightly, the coke and scrap market prices remained stable, the iron ore market price rose slightly by 15-30 yuan, and the billet market price rose slightly by 60-70 yuan.

2. The national steel social stocks began to rise this week. At present, the nation's steel stocks have started to rise after eight consecutive weeks of decline. The rise in building materials stocks has slightly accelerated, and the rate of decline in sheet stocks has slowed slightly. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on December 14th, steel society stocks in 29 key cities nationwide were 11,816,500 tons, up 39,800 tons from the previous week. From the perspective of sub-species: China's wire rod social inventory is 1,800,100 tons, up 3.44% from last week; rebar, social inventories is 4,454,500 tons, up 1.50% over last week; Panluo's social inventory is 385,000 tons, This was an increase of 5.37% from the previous week; the social volume of hot-rolled coils was 3,208,800 tons, down 1.90% from the previous week; the volume of cold-rolled coils society was 1.5982 million tons, down 0.69% from last week; the plate's social inventory The amount was 1,345,500 tons, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week.

3. Steel market continued to rise this week. Week 50 of 2012 (12.10-12.14) The rebar market continued last week's rally. This week's weekly closing price rose by 130 points from last week. The main contract this week was 1.487 million. Hand, the increase of 125,000 hands, the phenomenon of heavy volume increase is obvious, which has a very important internal support for the sustainability of price increases.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

National Consumer Price Level Increases 2.0% YoY in November

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2012, the national consumer price level rose by 2.0% year-on-year. Among them, cities rose 2.1%, rural areas rose 1.9%; food prices rose 3.0%, non-food prices rose 1.6%; consumer goods prices rose 1.9%, service prices rose 2.3%. From January to November, the national consumer price level rose by 2.7% over the same period of last year. In November, the nation’s overall consumer price index rose by 0.1% from the previous month. Among them, cities rose by 0.1% and rural areas rose by 0.2%; food prices rose by 0.4%, non-food prices were flat; consumer goods prices rose by 0.3%, and service items prices dropped by 0.3%.

November PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2012, the national producer prices of industrial producers fell by 2.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month. The purchase price of industrial producers fell by 2.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month. From January to November, the ex-factory price of industrial producers decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 1.8% year-on-year. In the ex-factory price of industrial producers, the price of means of production fell by 3.0% year-on-year, of which, the price of mining industry fell by 5.3%, the price of raw material industry decreased by 2.7%, and the price of processing industry decreased by 2.9%. Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the price of ferrous materials decreased by 9.5% year-on-year, the price of chemical raw materials fell by 4.5%, the price of non-ferrous metal materials and wires decreased by 3.9%, the price of textile raw materials decreased by 1.8%, and the price of fuel power declined. 1.6%, agricultural and sideline products prices rose 0.6%.

In the ex-factory price of industrial producers, the ex-factory price of production materials fell by 0.1%, of which, the price of extractive industry fell by 0.2%, the price of raw material industry decreased by 0.3%, and the price of processing industry decreased by 0.1%. In the purchase prices of industrial producers, the prices of building materials and non-metals rose by 0.3% month-on-month, the prices of ferrous metal materials rose by 0.1%, the prices of textile raw materials stayed flat (ups and downs by 0), and the prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires dropped. 1.3%, fuel-power prices fell by 0.2%.

In the first 11 months, fixed asset investment increased by 20.7% year-on-year

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2012, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326.236 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 20.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was unchanged from January to October. From a month-on-month basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.26% in November. In terms of sub-industries, industrial investment in the secondary industry was 1,399.6 billion yuan, an increase of 21.1%, and the growth rate fell 0.8 percentage points from January to October; among them, the mining industry invested 11,115 billion yuan, an increase of 12.2%, and the growth rate fell by 2.5 percentage points. The investment in manufacturing industry was 1131.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.8%, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water was 1.4941 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2%, and the growth rate was down 2.4 percentage points.

From the perspective of construction and new construction projects, from January to November, the total planned investment for the construction project was 7,094.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that in the January-October period; the total planned investment for new construction projects was 2,783.2 billion yuan. It increased by 28.8% year-on-year and accelerated by 2.1 percentage points.

In November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 10.1%

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2012, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size actually grew by 10.1% year-on-year (the growth rate of the following added value is the real growth rate of deducting price factors), which is 0.5 percentage points faster than that in October. From a month-on-month basis, the value-added of above-scale industries increased by 0.86% from the previous month in November. From January to November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 10.0% year-on-year.

In terms of sub-sectors, in November, the value added of the 41 major categories of industries all increased year-on-year. Among them, the textile industry increased by 11.0%, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 12.3%, the non-metal mineral products industry increased by 10.5%, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.8%, the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.1%, the automobile manufacturing industry. Growth of 6.5%, railways, ships, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing increased by 4.1%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 8.8%, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing increased by 12.6%, and electricity and heat production and supply The industry grew by 6.0%.

In November, the new RMB 522.9 billion was added. According to statistics from the Central Bank, at the end of November, the balance of broad money (M2) was 94.48 trillion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the end of last month and higher than the same period of last year. 1.2 percentage points; the narrow money (M1) balance was 29.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year, 0.6 and 2.3 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period of last year; the balance of money in circulation (M0) was 5.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase. 10.7%. Net cash deposits of 92.4 billion yuan in the month.

At the end of November, the balance of foreign currency ** was 66.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%. ***** The balance was 62.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, 0.2 percentage point lower than the end of last month and 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period of last year. The month’s ***** increased 522.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 40 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sub-sectors, households have increased by 240.8 billion yuan, of which short-term loans have increased by 89.3 billion yuan; medium- and long-term loans have increased by 151.5 billion yuan; non-financial companies and other sectors have increased by 281.7 billion yuan, of which short-term loans have increased. A total of 304.7 billion yuan, a reduction of 3.1 billion yuan in the medium- and long-term debts, and a 36.9 billion yuan reduction in bills. January-November ***** increased by 7.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 919.1 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of November, the balance of foreign currency ** was US$660 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and foreign currency ** increased by US$16.6 billion in the same month.

Electricity consumption in the whole society increased by 7.6% compared to the same period in November

According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, in November, the entire society used 413.9 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year. From January to November, the country’s entire society used 4502.8 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year. According to the classification, the primary industry's electricity consumption was 94 billion kwh, a decrease of 0.6%; the secondary industry's electricity consumption was 3319.1 billion kwh, an increase of 3.5%; the tertiary industry's electricity consumption was 518.3 billion kwh, an increase of 11.2%; urban and rural residents Life electricity consumption was 571.4 billion kwh, an increase of 10.6%.

The National Development and Reform Commission intensively announced the approval of power transmission and transformation projects. The National Development and Reform Commission recently approved 8 power transmission and transformation projects and substation expansion projects with a total amount of 4.299 billion yuan, which means that over 15 billion yuan of electricity investment projects have been approved since December. Rare. In the past two weeks, the National Development and Reform Commission approved a total of 16 power investment projects, including 7 substation expansion projects, 7 power transmission and transformation projects, and 2 power station projects with a total amount of 15.627 billion yuan, mainly distributed in Anhui, Hunan, In Shandong and other eastern and central regions, this is also the first time this year that the National Development and Reform Commission has intensively approved power transmission projects based on transmission and transformation substations.

Raw material supply:

According to statistics from the Customs, the import of iron ore in November was 65.78 million tons in November, an increase of 9.35 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 2.46% year-on-year. From January to November, imports totaled 672.91 million tons, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year.

Industry News:

Brazil imposes anti-dumping duties on stainless steel cutlery on China On December 7, the Trade Protection Bureau of Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade sent a letter to the business office of the Chinese Embassy in Brazil and told the Pakistani side to end its anti-dumping investigation against the Chinese-origin stainless steel cutlery. The product involved was levied an anti-dumping duty of $19.70/kg. The products involved in the communist government's tariff numbers are: 8211.1000, 8211.9100, 8215.2000, and 8215.9910.

Steel imports and exports rebounded in November According to statistics from the Customs, November steel output was 5.13 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons compared with October, an increase of 22.14% compared with the same period of last year. From January to November, total exports were 50.88 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. In November, China imported 1.06 million tons of steel, an increase of 30,000 tons from October, a decrease of 13.82% over the same period of last year. From January to November, the cumulative import was 12.61 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%. In the first 11 months, the billet basically had no exit. In November, it imported 40,000 tons of billet, and imported a total of 330,000 tons from January to November, a decrease of 44.9% from the same period of last year. 1

According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, the 1.19 million tons of crude steel produced per day in November showed that the country’s total crude steel production in November was 57.47 million tons, an average of 1.91 million tons per day, a slight increase of 0.52% compared with the previous period and an increase of 13.7% year-on-year. From January to November, the cumulative production of crude steel was 660 million tons, an increase of 2.9% over the same period of last year.

On the previous day, the thread ** rose 14 days, the main contract rose 2.82%

The rebar main 1305 contract was opened at 3,683 yuan/ton in the morning on the 14th, and then the price showed upward trend throughout the day. The lowest was 3,676 yuan per ton for the whole day, and the highest was 3,790 yuan per ton, and it was closed at 3,786 yuan per ton. On the trading day (13th), the settlement price rose by 104 yuan/ton, 3,537,308 lots, 1,486,718 lots, and 63,390 lots.

Downstream demand:

National investment in real estate development increased by 16.7% in November

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2012, the national real estate development investment was 6,477.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from January to October. Among them, the residential investment was 4,460.6 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9%, and the growth rate increased by 1.1 percentage points, accounting for 68.9% of the real estate development investment. From January to November, the investment in real estate development in the eastern region was 3671.9 billion yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than that in January-October; the investment in real estate development in the central region was 1,405.50 billion yuan, an increase of 19.4%, and the growth rate was increased by 3 percentage points. The investment in real estate development in the western region was 1401.8 billion yuan, an increase of 19.5%, and the growth rate was increased by 2 percentage points.

From January to November, the area of ​​new construction of real estate development enterprises was 16,214.3 million square meters, down by 7.2%, and the decline rate was reduced by 1.3 percentage points from January to October. Among them, the newly-started residential area was 1,190.05 million square meters, down by 11.1%.

November auto sales increased 8.2% year-on-year

According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, November production and sales of automobiles were 1,761,400 and 1,791,100, respectively, an increase of 11% and 11.5% respectively from the previous quarter; an increase of 3.9% and 8.2% year-on-year respectively. From January to November, automobile production and sales increased by more than 4% year-on-year. China Automobile Association expects annual output and sales to exceed 19 million vehicles.

From January to November, the accumulated railway investment in fixed assets totaled 506.969 billion yuan. According to statistics from the Ministry of Railways, the railway fixed asset investment was 506.969 billion yuan in November 2012, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, and railway infrastructure investment was 431.932 billion yuan. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%. This is the first time that the railway fixed investment and capital construction investment have achieved positive growth this year. In terms of single-month data, railway fixed asset investment reached RMB 81.8 billion in November, an increase of 0.97% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 30.56%. Railway infrastructure investment reached RMB 70.106 billion, an increase of 4.7% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 141.22%.

From January to November, sales of household appliances to the countryside exceeded 70 million units. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, the country from January to November this year (excluding Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, and Qingdao), the above three provinces and one city’s home appliances policy was last November 30 At the end of the day, sales of home appliances to the countryside were 74,927,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%.

Domestic traffic fixed asset investment increased by 0.83% in the first 11 months

According to statistics from the Ministry of Transport, in November, domestic investment in fixed assets completed 170.82 billion yuan, up 6% from the previous month. Compared with the same period of last year, investment growth in November continued to exceed double digits, reaching 10.4%.

In terms of categories, both highways and inland investments have seen positive growth. In the first 11 months of this year, the investment in highway construction reached 1,147.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.55%, while the highway investment in the previous October also fell slightly by 0.95% year-on-year. The investment in inland construction completed 42.27 billion yuan, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points; the construction cost for coastal construction was 93.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; the investment in other construction projects was 21.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%, and the decline was slightly larger.