The development prospects of the domestic PV industry are promising but still difficult to improve

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "12th Five-Year Development Plan for Solar Photovoltaic Industry". The plan clearly proposes the development direction of the solar photovoltaic industry from four aspects: the economic target technical goal innovation goal and the power generation cost goal. In this plan, the most concerned about the market is the cost of photovoltaic power generation. The plan proposes that by 2015, the cost of photovoltaic modules will drop to 7,000 yuan / kW, the cost of photovoltaic systems will drop to 13,000 yuan / kW, and the cost of power generation will fall. 0.8 yuan / kWh; by 2020, the cost of photovoltaic modules has dropped to 5,000 yuan / kW, the cost of photovoltaic systems has dropped to 10,000 yuan / kW, and the cost of power generation has dropped to 0.6 yuan / kWh. Everbright Securities believes that the introduction of this plan is conducive to the orderly development of China's overall photovoltaic industry, and effectively promote the effective cost reduction of the entire photovoltaic power generation industry chain, thereby promoting the growth of domestic PV market demand. In the future, the development of the entire industry will still focus on how to effectively reduce the power generation cost of photovoltaic systems. However, how to effectively promote the continuous decline of solar cell and photovoltaic system costs and achieve a substantial "fee free online" will remain the core elements and industry theme of the development of the photovoltaic industry. According to the planning requirements, in 2015, the distribution network side is expected to achieve parity online access. In 2020, the power generation side is expected to achieve parity online access. In the future, silicon components and related components will face market pressures of rapid price reduction, and photovoltaic power generation systems will continue to be highly efficient. The direction of cost development. After the gradual realization of the affordable Internet access, the demand for photovoltaic power generation will gradually transform from the current policy-driven type to the endogenous demand of the market, and the development prospects of the industry can be expected. However, in the short run, the long-term positive policies will not cover the performance pressures facing the industry. According to Haitong Securities' report, as of January 31, the solar company's downward revision of its performance expectations has become a common phenomenon, showing a strong cyclical nature of the industry. In particular, from the single-quarter earnings of listed companies, listed companies' performance in the fourth quarter of last year was the weakest, and large losses became a common phenomenon. This also shows that although the global photovoltaic industry ushered in a wave of countries that are mainly engaged in Germany, Italy and China, the peak of such installation is only the digestion of the original large inventory, and the supply and demand pattern and the prosperity of the whole industry have not completely improved. Haitong Securities believes that the reason for the sharp decline in the performance of A-share market companies in 2011 is that the European debt crisis has deepened, resulting in a serious decline in the European PV market. As a result, the global PV market experienced a serious overcapacity between supply and demand in 2011. Happening. Since March of last year, the development of the photovoltaic industry has been accompanied by tremendous pressure to “digest inventory”. The price of products in the polysilicon industry chain has dropped rapidly, and the gross profit margin of related companies has generally declined. Some companies even pay the price of “loss”. To digest inventories, this is the main reason for the dismal operation in 2011. Secondly, domestic A-share listed companies are too dependent on exports, and the depreciation of the euro has greatly increased the exchange losses suffered by these export-oriented enterprises, which has affected the efficiency of enterprises. In addition, the significant increase in accounts receivable and inventory impairments was also the main reason for the decline in performance. This year, the photovoltaic industry is still facing severe challenges, especially the recent German Ministry of the Environment officially announced the new PV on-grid price reduction policy proposal, the severity is far more than expected. Guojin Securities believes that the freezing of the German market will cause the high operating rate of component companies to drop significantly, and the fall in component prices is hard to avoid. As the current links in the industry chain are still in a low-profit state, there is limited room for price decline in the short term, but there may still be a situation in which the price fell sharply in the spot market, regardless of the cost of selling in the spot market. Moreover, without a quick replenishment from emerging market demand, companies may face a difficult situation in which prices and prices fall in the second quarter.

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