"Guidelines for distributed generation of natural gas" is expected to be released during the year

International Energy Network News: An authoritative source disclosed to reporters that the final draft of the “Guidance on Distributed Generation of Natural Gas” as one of the important policies for the promotion of distributed energy development in future policies (hereinafter referred to as the “Guidance Opinion”) has been prepared by the National Energy Administration. The formulation is completed and it is being signed by organizations such as the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing Construction and is expected to be announced during the year.

Natural gas distributed generation is currently recognized as a major form of distributed energy development at home and abroad. In April last year, the National Energy Administration issued the “Guidance on Distributed Generation of Natural Gas (Draft for Comment)”, which mentioned that 1,000 natural gas distributed energy projects should be built by the end of this year, and that it should be distributed and used in big cities by 2020. The energy system has an installed capacity of 50 million kilowatts, a 10-fold increase over the current installed capacity of 5 million kilowatts.

According to industry analysis, the 50 million-kilowatt installation target means that natural gas distributed energy will generate a market size of more than 150 billion yuan in the next 10 years. At present, the electric power companies that have already been involved in this field, especially the natural gas power generation equipment manufacturing enterprises, will benefit extensively.

The use of small-scale equipment to provide energy supply to users is a new energy utilization method that has recently emerged in recent years. Compared with the traditional centralized energy system, distributed energy is close to the load, and it is not necessary to build a large power grid to carry out long-distance high-voltage or ultra-high-voltage power transmission, which can greatly reduce power grid line losses and save transmission and distribution investment and operating costs. Natural gas distributed generation is widely considered to be the first choice for the development of distributed energy.

It is understood that in addition to formulating specific development goals for the next 10 years, the "Guiding Opinions" also propose a series of preferential fiscal and taxation policies for natural gas power generation projects.

The above-mentioned sources stated that the opinions of the “Guidance Opinions” comprehensively proposed to provide investment subsidies for demonstration projects, and to collect 50% of the natural gas distributed power generation projects in accordance with on-grid power value-added tax, and also encourage the localization of equipment. At the same time, it will further study and formulate benchmark on-grid tariffs for natural gas power generation in the future.

According to reports, the National Energy Administration is also developing the "Distributed Power Generation Management Measures" during the same period, which states that distributed natural gas is the main form of distributed power generation nationwide for the next five years. It also proposed to stimulate the development of distributed energy through measures such as subsidy for funds, sale of excess power to the grid, and granting property rights to the investor's power grid facilities.

Earlier, relevant officials of the National Energy Administration once said that in the next five years, the country will push for natural gas to generate electricity, and it will strive to achieve an installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts by 2015, which is double the current level. Among them, the promotion of distributed natural gas generation will also be the main starting point for the development of natural gas power generation.

The market size exceeds 150 billion yuan. The development of distributed energy in China has just started. It currently accounts for less than 1% of the total installed capacity of power generation. According to relevant plans, the proportion of domestic natural gas power generation capacity in the next five years will account for more than 4% of the total installed capacity of power, and by 2020 distributed natural gas power generation will account for 3% of the total installed capacity. This means that the prospects of distributed natural gas and even the entire natural gas power generation industry are very promising.

The analysis pointed out that the cost of domestic construction of natural gas power stations is generally around 3,000 yuan/kilowatt. If the target is calculated at 60 million kilowatts, the domestic investment in natural gas power generation will reach nearly 200 billion yuan in the next five years. If the distributed generation of natural gas reaches 50 million kilowatts by 2020, this means that the market size in this area can exceed 150 billion yuan in the next 10 years.

Relevant persons pointed out that the promotion of the development of natural gas power generation will focus on promoting the industrialization of gas-fired power generation equipment (mainly based on gas turbines). This means that equipment manufacturers will be able to take the lead. At present, the domestic mainstream 10,000-kilowatt gas-fired unit is generally priced at 5 to 6 million yuan. Therefore, the installed capacity of 50 million kilowatts will bring about 30 billion equipment market space. It is understood that the current domestic manufacturers of gas turbines mainly include AVIC Heavy Machinery (600765), Harbin Power (01133.HK), Hangzhou Steam Turbine B (200771) and Shanghai Electric (601727).