Chinanews.com June 14th (Financial Channel Wang Yijun) According to the National Bureau of Statistics data release schedule, the main macroeconomic data for May will be announced today. According to media reports from Zhongxin.com, the media reports indicate that CPI will continue to rise in May due to drought and rising food prices, and the growth rate may hit a new high in the year.
Drought boosts food prices, May CPI increase or new high
According to the data monitored by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Agriculture, due to the drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the price of edible agricultural products began to decline slightly in May, and returned to a small increase. In addition, from the food prices of 50 cities across the country published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average price of all foods in the second half of May rose by 1.52% from the middle of the year, and the overall average price of consecutive foods increased.
According to forecasts made by many institutions on the May CPI, experts are not optimistic about the inflation situation. It is generally believed that the CPI will continue to rise in May, and many people predict that it will reach 5.5%.
The latest report released by the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center predicts that the consumer price index (CPI) in May will increase by 5.5% year-on-year, exceeding the 5.4% in March, setting a new high for the year. The time and magnitude of price decline in the second half of the year are relatively high. Great uncertainty.
According to a research report released by CICC recently, due to the impact of drought and rising food prices, CPI is expected to increase by 5.6% year-on-year in May, and the possibility of a CPI of 6% in June is expected to increase. In addition, CICC expects non-food prices to maintain its recent historical average upward trend in May. These two factors will make the CPI in May run at a high level year-on-year.
Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, believes that although the PPI fell for the second consecutive month, the CPI in May may break through the previous highs and reach about 5.5% under the joint promotion of the hikes and food prices.
Monetary policy is expected to continue to tighten in June or welcome another rate hike
In the context of high inflation, policy tightening is hard to relax. According to the analysis of various agencies and industry insiders, the monetary policy in June should continue the previous tightening. As the CPI continues to rise, it will raise interest rates again in June.
The People's Bank of China said in the China Financial Stability Report (2011) released last Friday that it will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy this year. The focus of future financial work is to expand the scale of direct financing, and the central bank will pay more attention to it. Total social financing indicators. On June 7, the central bank also launched a massive $28 billion repurchase of 28 days to deal with the open market maturity. Some analysts pointed out that this is to provide space for raising interest rates.
Ma Jun, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, believes that considering the various factors, CPI growth will peak at around 6% in June this year and fall to around 4% by the end of the year. Therefore, it is expected that there will be another rate hike from June to July this year, and the RRR will be raised two to three times.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that inflationary pressures will not be eased in the short term, and domestic tightening policies will continue to be implemented. The next year's CPI growth in May will hit a new high in the year, and may hit a new high in June and July. The possibility of interest is high.
Wu Xiaoling, deputy director of the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, said recently that although the economy is likely to face a slowdown, China should continue to tighten monetary policy and increase its ability to withstand the slowdown in economic growth. Otherwise, regulation will be abandoned. Contradictions continue to accumulate.
PMI index continues to fall, economic growth slows
According to the latest data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52.0% in May, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The index continued to remain above 50%, but from the trend point of view, this year, except for a brief rebound in March, it continued to decline slightly, indicating that the economic growth rate has shown a steady decline.
Most experts believe that the momentum of China's GDP growth rate correction in the second quarter has been determined, but it can still maintain a high speed of about 9.5%. Under the general view of the high CPI in May, China's economic growth has slowed slightly, which will help ease inflationary pressures. Compared with other countries in the world, China's economic growth rate has maintained a steady and rapid growth momentum.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that after April, the PMI index continued to fall in May, reflecting the possibility of a decline in economic growth. In particular, the purchase price index has been greatly reduced, indicating that inflation expectations may change and destocking activities may increase, which will slow down economic growth.
Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the slowdown in economic growth is the result of inflation suppression. At present, inflationary pressures are almost reaching their peak, and inflationary pressures will slow down as the bull market for primary products ends. The economic slowdown has not prevented China from maintaining the fastest growth rate among the major powers and does not hinder the relative advancement of China in the international economic system.
Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, pointed out that from the perspective of PMI, the economic “double slowdown†situation is obvious. On the one hand, economic growth has slowed down, on the other hand, the purchase price has dropped significantly. However, the PMI index is still within the scope of macroeconomic regulation and control. From the current situation, although the economic growth rate has gradually slowed down, there is no need to worry about the “hard landing†of the economy. At present, it is necessary to prevent the growth of demand from falling too fast, resulting in insufficient economic growth.
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