Speeding up steel production due to the construction of affordable housing

For the progress of the construction of affordable housing, although there is no first-line data for the construction steel manufacturing enterprises, they are more intuitive through the demand situation. The author recently conducted a field survey of Hebei, the country’s largest iron and steel producer, and found that construction steel products are showing a trend of prosperous production and sales. Although steel mills are not very sure about whether or not housing has started to effectively stimulate demand, they generally conclude from the current satisfactory sales and profit conditions that the pulling effect of social housing should have already become apparent.

The booming production and sales of construction steel The author recently learned that after visiting several steel plants on site in the Hebei region, the current production and sales of construction steel products appear to be “outstanding”, which is obviously better than that of coil products.

A steel mill sales office with an annual output of about 6 million tons, mainly based on wire rods, told the author that the current steel mills basically operate with zero inventory, and that after the products are produced, traders can immediately pick up the goods and there will be no backlog. Another person from the market department of Tangshan Iron and Steel Company, which has an annual output of 8.5 million tons, told the author that the current sales of construction steel are significantly better than those of sheet metal products.

It is understood that the hardware and appliance manufacturers in the Guangdong region have stopped working for nearly half of the time. Therefore, the plates have been greatly affected. The order of the cold-rolled plate production line has been dissatisfied, and it has been unable to start at full capacity. However, from the perspective of sales of building materials, real estate development has no noticeable signs of weakening, and construction steel represented by rebar has shown a tendency of both production and sales. “Now the profit of the ton steel of construction steel is about 300 yuan, and the coil is more than 200 yuan.” The above-mentioned sources stated that the current high profit level stimulated the steel mills to fully exploit their production capacity. The utilization rate of steel mills in Hebei has reached 95%.

Differentiation of attitudes in the industry Because construction steels are usually sold by means of traders, rather than direct supply, steel mills cannot know the final flow of products. However, most steel mills judged from the current sales situation of building materials, the protection of the housing "should have been started," and began to gradually exert demand power.

“We analyze that the current price of rebar is inversely related to the price of sheet steel, which is mainly related to the protection of the housing. This situation we believe will continue until September.” A privately-owned steel producer with an annual production capacity of over 8 million tons in the Shijiazhuang area I expressed to the author.

Another steel mill sales office in Tangshan judged: “From the current sales and construction conditions seen in our region, the security housing should have already started.”

However, steel mills and traders still have doubts about this. From the survey situation, some people in the industry are still worried about the uncertainty of the construction of affordable housing. At present, the steel price is already at a high level and the industry is cautious.

“After the housing starts, is the amount of steel used sufficient? And how many of them are filled with existing houses? No one knows. These are all uncertainties.” Inside a large steel trading company in Shanghai According to the author, the above factors, combined with the pulling effect on the protection of the housing, need to be observed.

Or welcome the pulse-type market protection room has almost become the only one in the second half of the steel market "life-saving straw." The continuous real estate market regulation has inhibited the development of commercial housing. Affected by the tightening of macroeconomic policies, many downstream industry orders have failed to grow and have even begun to decline. Therefore, the construction progress of the security housing in the second half of the year has become a topic of great concern to the steel industry.

Since the overall operating rate of the nation's social security housing is only around 30%, under the “major limit” of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that must be fully started at the end of November, the third quarter housing project will face a situation of centralized construction. This means that, next, construction steel, mainly rebar and wire rod, is expected to usher in a situation in which demand is concentrated.

"Starting" means starting to hit the ground. There are brokerage analysts estimated that the protection of the house needs about 50 kilograms of steel per square meter, the amount of steel used in the foundation accounts for about 50% of the total amount. According to the calculation of 50 square meters, the amount of steel that needs to be used in the early stage of the construction of 10 million sets of affordable housing is about 12.5 million tons. However, not all 10 million units of affordable housing are new construction projects. There is still a certain percentage of existing buildings that are in charge. Therefore, the actual demand should be close to 10 million tons.

The 10 million tons is a small figure for the steel market with an annual output of more than 600 million tons. However, due to the fact that the current operating rate of steel mills is generally approaching the limit, if the incremental demand is concentrated within a few months, the steel market may still There is a period of tension between supply and demand. Some analysts believe that this will create a "pulse" market, and companies that rely primarily on construction steel production will be expected to usher in profitable highs.